(Bloomberg) -- Japan investors are keeping a wary eye on the latest meeting between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. History suggests they are right to do so.

During Trump’s tenure, the benchmark Topix Index has posted losses over the month following four of the past six summits, according to Citigroup Inc. The two worst performances came after meetings last September and November, the data show.

Trump said he may announce something on a U.S.-Japan trade agreement in August, after Abe’s ruling party heads into elections planned for July. The two leaders are expected to hold a joint news conference at about 2 p.m. Tokyo time after talks and a working lunch. The U.S. president was also the first foreign head of state to meet Japan’s new Emperor Naruhito, who ascended the Chrysanthemum throne May 1.

While most of the world’s attention is centered on the breakdown in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, Japan also faces some delicate talks of its own, especially for its key automotive industry. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on approximately $50 billion worth of Japanese car and auto part imports annually, as well as demanding greater access for American farmers. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. edged higher while Honda Motor Co. retreated in Tokyo.

Read more: Toyota Says Trump Sent Message Carmaker ‘Not Welcomed’

Still, the expectation this time round for Japanese shares is less dire, given the unlikelihood of any major commitments arising from the meetings, Tomochika Kitaoka, chief equity strategist with Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc., said in the report.

“Qualitatively we see the current summit as neutral in the short term,” he said. “There will be no trade agreement or even a joint statement after the leaders’ meeting.”

So far, Japanese equity traders agree. The Topix inched 0.3% higher in Tokyo, recovering from a three-day losing streak last week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little-changed, with the gains in Japan offsetting losses in Hong Kong and South Korea.

Stock Market Summary

  • MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex-Japan little changed
  • MSCI Asia Pacific Index little changed
  • Japan’s Topix index up 0.3%; Nikkei 225 up 0.3%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 0.6%; Hang Seng China Enterprises down 0.9%; Shanghai Composite up 0.3%; CSI 300 little changed
  • Taiwan’s Taiex index little changed
  • South Korea’s Kospi index down 0.2%; Kospi 200 down 0.2%
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 little changed; New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 down 0.6%
  • India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index up 0.3%; NSE Nifty 50 up 0.2%
  • Singapore’s Straits Times Index down 0.3%; Malaysia’s KLCI little changed; Philippine Stock Exchange Index down 0.5%; Jakarta Composite up 0.8%; Thailand’s SET up 0.3%; Vietnam’s VN Index up 0.4%
  • S&P 500 e-mini futures little changed after index closed up 0.1% in last session

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Lam in Hong Kong at elam87@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Cormac Mullen, Ravil Shirodkar

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