(Bloomberg) -- During the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, US equity trading volume fell 43% when the US was playing, according to a study by two European Central Bank economists. That’s not the most in the world -- in Chile it fell more than 99% -- but there’s a good chance that will be surpassed this afternoon as the US faces a crunch match against Iran.

The winner is likely to qualify for the final 16 of the competition. That’s a feat the US achieved in 2010 and 2014, though its best World Cup performance was in 1930, where it reached the semi-final of the first FIFA World Cup in Uruguay before losing 6-1 to Argentina in a violent clash.

Teams earn 3 points for a win or 1 for a draw. Iran is on 3 points and the US on 2, so the winner will qualify, whereas Iran still has a chance of progressing if it can hold the US to a draw.

Corporate-bond volume is already low for the time of day, as the chart below shows. Trading on the S&P 500 is also below the 10-day average.

 

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.