(Bloomberg) -- After the Cold War split the world into two camps starting in the 1950s, newly independent India became a founder of the Non-Aligned Movement — a group of countries that sided neither with Washington nor Moscow.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has kept some elements of that policy intact, and thrown others out of the window. Most notably, Modi has pursued deeper links with the US, which it sees as a partner in standing up to a more assertive China. At the same time, he has continued to cultivate his country’s longstanding ties to Moscow.
In a sign of Russia’s enduring importance to India, Modi will meet President Vladimir Putin on Monday in his first overseas visit to a fellow leader since securing a third term in office. But that relationship is growing more complicated too, as Russia pursues deeper links to China in its bid for wider support for its grueling war in Ukraine.
1. Is India a US ally?
India and the US have been strategic partners for at least two decades, meaning they can build relationships and cooperate militarily but aren’t formal, treaty-bound allies. While they have much in common — both are large, diverse democracies — New Delhi has pursued its own interests in ways that have sometimes clashed with those of the US. It has declined to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine, for example, while an alleged murder-for-hire plot on US soil has triggered a criminal investigation that prosecutors say implicates senior Indian officials.
A pillar of the relationship remains China’s emergence as an assertive regional power. China and India are longstanding rivals with a bitter border dispute, and the US has been eager to enlist India as a counterweight to Beijing’s rise. India is a part of the Quad, a regional security dialog with the US, Japan and Australia. A team of senior US officials recently paid a visit to India, where the two sides discussed cooperation in technology, security and foreign investment.
2. What is India’s relationship with Russia?
Despite its avowed non-alignment during the Cold War, India maintained cordial relations with Moscow and was wary of the US, which was closer to India’s archrival Pakistan. India and Russia maintain strong ties to this day.
The backbone of the relationship is India’s status as a reliable buyer of Russian weapons and crude oil. Today, Russia remains India’s largest supplier of arms, though shipments have been on the decline — from about two-thirds of India’s arms imports more than a decade ago to just over one third today, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute — as India has looked to diversify its weapons sources. Russia also remains India’s top supplier of oil, though sanctions on Russia’s oil exports after its invasion of Ukraine have dented Indian imports of Russian crude.
India has also stood out among major democracies for its reluctance to criticize Putin, and has abstained from United Nations votes condemning the war in Ukraine.
3. What is India’s relationship with China?
Relations have been strained for years. The source of tension has been a territorial dispute along their shared border that dates back decades, and over which the two countries fought a war in 1962. The dispute came to a boil once again in 2020, erupting in a series of deadly skirmishes and prompting New Delhi to ban Chinese smartphone apps and curb Chinese investment in India.
Recently, there has been speculation of a detente. In May, Beijing appointed its first ambassador to India in 18 months. After his arrival, he expressed a desire to improve ties between the two countries. China also congratulated Modi after his election win in June and a Chinese official said the countries were on a “healthy and stable track.” The countries have agreed to further talks to resolve the border dispute.
4. How is Russia’s relationship with China changing?
Russia and China have been rivals dating back to the Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War (a rivalry that also brought Russia and India closer). But the relationship has warmed markedly as the two united in their opposition to a US-led international order.
Putin made Beijing his first stop abroad after he won a third term as president in March. At a July security summit in Kazakhstan, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin said relations were “their best in history,” and both sides vowed to jointly safeguard “regional tranquility and stability.” China has become another top buyer of Russian oil, gas and coal, helping Russia to weather Western sanctions imposed after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
5. How does the US handle India’s Russia ties?
Washington continues to see India as a bulwark against the spread of China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. While it has at times chastised India over alleged human rights violations and treatment of minorities, India’s links to Moscow have come at minimal political cost. Following a recent visit by senior US officials, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the US side raised the issue of India’s links to Russia as well as allegations of Indian involvement in the murder-for-hire plot. But he also said the US had confidence in its relationship with India and wants to expand cooperation between the two countries.
In the view of some analysts, the US sees India as an important ally in its bid to contain China, so doesn’t want to run the risk of alienating officials in New Delhi.
--With assistance from Nick Wadhams and Yasufumi Saito.
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