(Bloomberg) -- Officially sworn into office on July 30, Masoud Pezeshkian is the second reformist president in the history of the Islamic republic of Iran. While ultimate power in the country rests with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the president can influence policy by drawing on a base of popular support, political affiliations and links to powerful institutions. Pezeshkian campaigned on a promise to ease tensions with the West that have escalated recently as Iran mobilized a regional network of proxy militias to target Israel in response to its military offensive in Gaza.
Who is Masoud Pezeshkian?
The 69-year-old lawmaker is a heart surgeon and former health minister who served under the previous reformist president, Mohammad Khatami. In his election campaign, he advocated for the revival of a 2015 deal with world powers in which Iran agreed to limitations on its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for a lifting of related economic sanctions. The deal broke down after the US, under then-President Donald Trump, withdrew from it and reinstated sanctions in 2018.
Pezeshkian is just the second non-cleric — after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 — to be elected president, and, unlike most previous presidents, he doesn’t have a beard — a symbol of religious piety.
While his politics differ significantly from those of the populist, right-wing Ahmadinejad, he has his predecessor’s ability to relate to many middle-class Iranians. He speaks in a direct, unpretentious manner and has impressed more conservative voters with his flawless recitations of the Koran during televised debates.
Pezeshkian is an ethnic Azeri, the largest minority in Iran and a group whose occasional calls for autonomy have stirred concerns among the country’s security apparatus.
In the election, called after conservative President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in May, Pezeshkian defeated Islamist hardliner Saeed Jalili in a runoff vote. Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator who is a vocal critic of the nuclear accord, takes a hawkish position toward the US and is a strong advocate for religious laws including mandatory hair coverings for women.
Pezeshkian has said he wants to build bridges with hardliners to cooperate on policy making and make government more efficient and effective.
What was the backdrop to Pezeshkian’s election?
Public mistrust in Iran’s leadership has been running high for some time, and turnout in the election was among the lowest ever recorded for a presidential vote. Dissatisfaction with the religious establishment, corruption, harsh and oppressive laws and the dire state of the economy have led to frequent protests by mostly middle-class, educated and urban Iranians.
The biggest uprising since the 1979 revolution came in 2022 in response to the death of a 22-year-old woman in a hospital following her arrest by the country’s “morality police” for allegedly violating Iran’s strict Islamic dress codes. Rights groups say hundreds of people were killed by security forces in a crackdown on dissent, and at least seven people were executed for taking part in demonstrations.
Tensions with the West have been high since the US abandoned the nuclear deal and imposed tougher sanctions on Iran’s regime and economy. Iran has been involved in a series of military confrontations with the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran and Israel came close to all-out war in April, with Tehran launching a direct military strike on Israel for the first time after its consulate in Damascus was bombed.
Iran sees itself as the primary custodian of the energy-rich Persian Gulf and has used its strategic location to rattle the West and its allies by seizing vessels linked to its adversaries. It’s also been accused of using Houthi rebels in Yemen to target ships in the Red Sea. In the past, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke-point for oil tankers and other trade vessels.
What are the prospects for a revived nuclear deal?
Talks to resurrect the nuclear accord stalled in the summer of 2022, weeks before the uprising triggered by Mahsa Amini’s death. Those discussions were led on the Iranian side by Ali Bagheri Kani, who as Raisi’s representative adopted a tough negotiating stance.
Pezeshkian has made it clear he wants to break with the hardline foreign policy of the Raisi administration. In his first move after Khameini confirmed him as president, he appointed Mohammad Reza Aref, a reformist, as his first vice president, according to Iranian state TV. Aref held the same position under President Khatami. The European Union diplomat in charge of nuclear talks with Iran, Enrique Mora, visited the country to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
Pezeshkian may face resistance from a parliament dominated by ultra-conservatives who are very critical of the nuclear deal. A lifting of the sanctions would boost Iran’s economy and potentially shore up the stability of the regime, a priority for Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, in a statement in response to the election result, Khamenei urged the new president to continue Raisi’s policies.
At the same time, there may be little appetite for concessions from the US, whose leaders are unlikely to prioritize detente with an unfriendly country that’s also in conflict with Israel. With Vice President Kamala Harris gearing up for a November election, any concession to Tehran could be used against her by her rival for the presidency, Trump.
What’s the role of Iran’s president?
The president acts as a deputy to the supreme leader, advising him on matters of government, implementing his instructions and, more broadly, serving as an agent for his policy agenda.
Officially, the president is the head of the executive branch of government, which includes ministers and about 12 vice-presidents and a slate of departments and agencies that manage the country. He’s accountable to parliament, which means he can be compelled to appear before the assembly to face questions.
The president picks his cabinet, but each appointment is subject to parliamentary approval, and ministerial candidates are sometimes rejected by lawmakers, especially when an opposing political faction dominates the chamber.
What are Pezeshkian’s chances of making a difference?
Depending on the size of his support base, his factional and institutional ties, the country’s economic situation and his level of personal ambition, the president has in the past managed to influence the direction of government policy and shape its details.
Pezeshkian will be surrounded by hardline institutions. This suggests he will struggle to pursue a reformist agenda — although his years of experience facing off against conservative colleagues in parliament may help him to broker deals and alliances.
As with his predecessors, his purview will have strict limits. The president is merely the elected, civilian representative of the people. It’s the supreme leader — appointed by a chamber of jurists and clerics — who makes the big decisions and issues the important decrees.
How have Iranian presidents gotten on with Khamenei?
Raisi was closely aligned with Khamenei, and his acting replacement Mohammad Mokhber was in the same mold.
Apart from those two, Khamenei eventually fell out with and sidelined all of those who worked under him since he became supreme leader in 1989. What has not always been clear in Iran’s opaque politics is whether they were the loser in a battle of wills with their powerful boss, or a useful fall guy who could be blamed for failed policies that the supreme leader had also embraced.
What are their legacies?
Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, president from 1989 to 1997, pushed for more liberal economic policies that boosted Iran’s reconstruction following a 1980-1988 war with Iraq. He started out a close ally of Khamenei but was pushed to the margins of politics after expressing concern about attacks by security forces on student protesters following disputed 2009 presidential elections.
The previous reformist, Khatami, oversaw a period of healthy economic growth and warmer relations with the West, including a rare level of engagement with the US when it helped the country fight the Taliban in Afghanistan in the early 2000s. He was marginalized from official life after serving two terms, ending in 2005, and has been subject to a media ban since 2015.
Ahmadinejad was hawkish toward the West. Relations deteriorated over concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, and the EU and US eventually sanctioned Iranian energy exports and banks over the issue. This triggered the country’s first major currency crisis since the war with Iraq, and Iran later became much more dependent on China for trade. After leaving office, Ahmadinejad was largely shunned from mainstream politics over clashes with Iran’s religious establishment on various issues including relations with Israel and the legal requirement for women to wear the hijab head covering.
Hassan Rouhani, a moderate cleric seen as having close links to the country’s elite military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, won the presidency in 2013 by campaigning for improved ties with the West with the aim of bringing sanctions on Iran to an end. This secured him the support of urban middle-class voters who normally backed more overtly reformist candidates. Rouhani used his mandate to pursue talks with Washington, and the nuclear deal was struck in 2015.
However, Rouhani was under constant pressure from hardliners, and his ministers often faced impeachment by a parliament dominated by conservatives. He was unable to make any changes to Iran’s restrictive social laws or end the house arrest of opposition leaders, as he’d promised. After the US pulled out of the nuclear accord, marking an end to the period of detente, Khamenei distanced himself from Rouhani. Earlier this year, the ex-president was banned from running in elections to maintain his seat on the Assembly of Experts — an important consultative body that’s tasked with appointing the supreme leader.
--With assistance from Arsalan Shahla.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
