(Bloomberg) -- Centrist parties were the biggest winners of Brazil’s municipal elections, with a candidate backed by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva losing in Sao Paulo and another supported by former President Jair Bolsonaro defeated in the capital of the agricultural powerhouse state of Goias.
Ricardo Nunes of the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement was reelected with 59% of the votes in a runoff Sunday to lead the country’s biggest city, leaving behind Lula-backed Guilherme Boulos with 41%, according to official results. Candidates supported by Bolsonaro lost in Goiania, capital of Goias, and in Curitiba, capital of the southern state of Parana.
Across the country, just 14% of Brazilian cities will be governed by left-wing parties for the next four years, while centrist parties will run 51%. Right-wing mayors will govern 35% of the municipalities. Mayors for 51 cities were on the ballot Sunday in the second round of municipal elections.
While the results aren’t indicative of the presidential race in 2026, they draw a map of political forces in more than 5,000 Brazilian municipalities, reshaping the parties’ strategies and their relationship with Lula’s administration.
The vote also has influence over the election for chiefs of the Lower House and the Senate due in early 2025. Lula is expected to overhaul his cabinet after the congress contest to build alliances for a possible reelection attempt. The results of municipal elections suggest he would have to rely on even more alliances with centrist parties to fight the right.
Less Polarized?
While centrist parties traditionally elect a large number of mayors in Brazil, this year’s results cast doubt on the lingering political influence of Brazil’s most polarizing figures: Lula and Bolsonaro.
Only five of the 15 state capitals in play in the runoff will be governed by mayors supported by Bolsonaro, who’s banned from seeking public office until 2030. At the same time, the left lost several cities in Brazil’s northeast, seen as Lula’s stronghold.
“In a polarized environment, the two extremes prefer that the center be small, they feed off of this polarization,” said Gilberto Kassab, president of the centrist Social Democratic Party, which elected the largest number of mayors this year. “When you have a strong center, the left and right are weaker because they are forced to dialogue — and those who do that better end up succeeding.”
Sao Paulo’s Race
Likewise, the outcome of Sao Paulo’s election raised yellow flags for both Lula and Bolsonaro.
Boulos, seen as a possible heir to Lula, received the same percentage of votes as he had four years ago, when running for the same job. That suggests he’s reached a ceiling that’s hard to overcome, even after moderating his rhetoric during a campaign with ample financial resources.
But the race also exposed fractures in a right-wing movement that is still plotting its path forward after Bolsonaro’s ban. Pablo Marcal, who finished third in the first round of the election, split Bolsonaro’s electorate with a campaign that leaned on the social-media tactics traditionally employed by the former president.
Nunes’ victory in Sao Paulo also empowered one of his key sponsors: Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, considered as a Bolsonaro heir who could run for president in 2026.
The defeats of Bolsonaro—backed candidates in the capitals of Goias and Parana also put in evidence the governors of those two states, Ronaldo Caiado and Carlos Roberto Massa Jr, considered as conservative names who may run for president in 2026.
(Recasts with strong showing by centrist parties, adds comment from Gilberto Kassab in seventh paragraph.)
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