(Bloomberg) -- Nobody in Romania saw the presidential election upset coming — not the public, not the pundits — and not the first-round winner, an ultranationalist with a formidable TikTok following who has doled out praise for Vladimir Putin.
Calin Georgescu, 62, an agricultural engineer by trade who ranked at the bottom of surveys only weeks ago, gave a brief statement late Sunday in front of a nondescript house in Bucharest, still reeling from the result. “What happened today is a stunning awakening of consciousness,” he told reporters.
The victory in Sunday’s presidential race eliminated the frontrunner, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, and counted as one of the biggest political shockwaves since the fall of Nicolae Ceausescu’s communist regime 35 years ago. Ciolacu resigned as head of his Social Democratic party.
Yet while unexpected, the upset falls in line with a surge in support for disruptors and right-wing forces across Europe and beyond — and comes on the heels of Donald Trump’s victory in the US this month.
It also comes as European governments are increasingly on guard over suspicions of widespread Russian influence operations and sabotage, action that played a role in elections in neighboring Moldova this year.
Andrei Taranu, a professor at the Bucharest University of Political Studies, said the electoral shock was a reminder that Romania remains under “immense hybrid attack” from Russia.
“People are, of course, disillusioned with the political class, but no one can get over 2 million votes overnight without a party and serious money to fund his campaign,” Taranu said.
The Russian government said it has little knowledge of Georgescu or his policies. “We cannot really say we are familiar with this candidate’s stance on relations with our country,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to state-run Tass news agency. “We will naturally monitor the electoral process and see who becomes the winner.”
Georgescu’s spokesman didn’t respond to Bloomberg phone calls seeking comment.
Soil Expert
The little-known independent will now face opposition leader Elena Lasconi, who campaigned on a fight against corruption, in a runoff on Dec. 8. That’s a week after Romanians vote in parliamentary elections on Sunday that have taken on greater significance for the established parties.
For Romania, the first-round win rests on a frustration with the failure of the Social Democrats and Liberals, who have governed in a grand coalition the past three years, to contend with poverty and fatigue with the war in Ukraine next door.
Georgescu’s background as a specialist in soil landed him a post at the United Nations as special rapporteur for human rights and dangerous waste from 2010 to 2013. He parlayed that with a message to Romanian farmers that he would halt a flood of Ukrainian grain into local markets in favor of shorter supply chains and fewer imports.
He was a sporadic presence in public life until he was put forward by the ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians as a candidate for the premiership in 2020. He later fell out with the party after making statements praising Romania’s World War II-era military dictator, Ion Antonescu, a Nazi ally who helped carry out the Holocaust.
The same year, he called Putin one of the world’s few true leaders in an interview, remarking that the Russian president loves his country regardless of the means he uses. This month, he offered even warmer praise for Trump after his victory in the US presidential election.
Other comments on Romania’s strategic objectives have been met with alarm by the political establishment. He advocated against military support for Ukraine, called for an end to the war and cast doubt on the benefit of Romania’s membership of NATO.
Viral Posts
But Georgescu’s presidential bid was buttressed by an intensive campaign called “Remaking Romania” on ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok, which garnered some 3 million likes — and almost 300,000 followers. He often appeared in domestic settings, in his living room, with his wife.
The effort hit a vein among Romanians, with viral posts lashing out at low child allowances — contrasting it with assistance for Ukrainian war refugees — drug-use in Romanian schools and poverty.
The social-media presence irked regulators. Electoral authorities demanded he remove posts that lacked data, including financial identification codes. Georgescu responded by dismissing any wrongdoing.
“This is proof they are scared — we’ve managed to do the impossible,” Georgescu said in a post ahead of the vote, with his candidacy slowly climbing in the polls to above 5% around last week.
What’s clear is that Georgescu’s reputation as a highly educated independent candidate offered an alternative to a political class tarred by corruption and lack of clear objectives. That appealed to Catalina Mocanu, a 53-year-old teacher in Bucharest.
“I was determined to vote for an independent candidate because I am very disappointed by every party,” she said after casting her vote on Sunday. “I don’t know much about Georgescu, but I heard him speak in some interviews and videos and I like him.”
--With assistance from Mark Sweetman and Greg Sullivan.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
