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How Macron’s Gambit Thrust France Into Economic Uncertainty

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Emmanuel Macron, France's president, during the NATO Summit in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, July 11, 2024. President Joe Biden and NATO's 31 other leaders had hoped their summit would celebrate fresh unity against Russia's Vladimir Putin, send a warning to China and prove the alliance is as strong as ever in its 75th year, but the three days of pageantry will be overshadowed by domestic turmoil across the alliance. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Emmanuel Macron’s surprise call for a snap election wasn’t just a political shock—it was a financial shock, too. The unexpected move by an unpopular French president pushed all-important spreads on the country’s bonds to their highest level in more than a decade. It turned out that investors were deeply fearful of France ending up in the hands of the far right.

To be sure, the nation’s fiscal situation was already weighing down sentiment when Macron chose to roll the dice, spurred on by the success of Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party in European Union elections. But the deep uncertainty that’s come as a result wasn’t something many could have predicted. In the Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary How Macron’s Gamble Plunged France Into Uncertainty, we explain how France got to this unlikely point in its history.

As investors had feared, Le Pen did win—at least at first. Emerging triumphant in the first round of voting, the far-right National Rally party appeared to have successfully distracted voters from its racist and antisemitic foundations. But the second round was different. Opponents united to defeat National Rally, relegating it and Le Pen to third place behind a left wing alliance and Macron’s centrists.

Still, no party gained enough seats to form a government, which has left France in deadlock and its political and economic future in doubt. In How Macron’s Gamble Plunged France Into Uncertainty, we show what may come next.

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