(Bloomberg) -- The number of days with temperatures over 30C (86F) in the UK have tripled in the past decade, compared to 1961-1990, according to the Met Office, which expects the trend to intensify as the climate warms.
A study from the UK’s weather service also found days when temperatures reached over 28C doubled in frequency over the same period. Days with temperatures over 20C increased by 41%.
The findings suggest that climate change is having the greatest impact on extremes of heat, rather than average temperatures, with implications for systems including health care and infrastructure. In July 2022 UK temperatures reached 40C for the first time ever, causing wildfires, heat deaths and problems for transport.
The Met Office study comes as scientists from the European Union's Copernicus said this week the world experienced its hottest day ever on Monday with an average temperature of 17.15C. The previous record was only the day before.
While last year was the warmest on record for the planet it was only the second hottest for the UK, after 2022.
The past decade (2014-2023) was the warmest for the UK since records began in 1884. The average temperature was 1.25C higher than it was between 1961 and 1990. Last year had the warmest June on record, and September was the joint-warmest. Attribution studies carried out by Met Office scientists found that 2023’s record-breaking heat was made much more likely by human-caused climate change.
One of the more surprising findings from the study was that 2022 and 2023 were not as hot as they could have been considering the amount of global warming baked into the atmosphere. This also indicates that in the near future the UK could experience much warmer years.
“There’s potential for a far higher UK annual mean temperature, not just in the future but actually in the current climate,” said Mike Kendon, a climate information scientist at the Met Office. “So we could get a year substantially warmer than 2022 or 2023.”
Very wet weather has also become more common. There were around 20% more days with exceptional rainfall in the past decade compared to 1961-1990. Annual mean sea level was also the highest on record in 2023 since records began in 1915, based on readings from Newlyn, Cornwall.
“We’re now looking at about two degrees of warming in the next 80 years,” Kendon said. “Our climate is going to be pushed outside the envelope of the current and historical range.”
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