(Bloomberg) -- President Emmanuel Macron called a time out on the worst political crisis to embroil France in recent history, relegating the government to a state of limbo just as the Olympic games are poised to get under way in Paris on Friday.
Currently, a caretaker administration is making sure essential business can continue, but its scope is limited and it doesn’t have the mandate or political power to undertake anything beyond ordinary affairs or emergencies.
On Tuesday, Macron said he won’t appoint a prime minister before mid-August, after the end of the Olympics. The comment came after he called a “political truce” so that the people can focus on the games.
How Did We Get Here?
Macron dissolved the lower house of the legislature, called the National Assembly, on June 9 after his centrist alliance was demolished by the far-right National Rally in a European Parliament election. People sometimes use the European Parliament ballot as a protest vote, which may have led Macron to gamble that he could use the disastrous result to shore up his support in a national election.
Instead, the two-round legislative election that ended July 7 saw support surge for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, while votes for Macron’s centrists cratered. But due to tactical voting and some unusual alliances, the center and the left were able to make sure that the far right only finished third in the parliamentary seat count. Le Pen’s party has also suffered from repeated mishaps during the campaign, including a candidate that appeared on a picture wearing a Nazi cap.
The New Popular Front coalition — which includes the moderate Socialists and the far-left France Unbowed — picked up the most seats, while Macron’s Ensemble finished second, losing a third of its seats. No political group is anywhere close to having an absolute majority, which would give it claim to the prime minister job. It’s the role of the prime minister to form a government.
When Do Negotiations Resume?
Macron is constitutionally empowered to pick a new prime minister, who is typically chosen from the biggest group in the National Assembly. In a TV interview Tuesday, the French leader made clear he will wait until after the Olympics before he makes a decision.
Meanwhile, political groups are jockeying to build a coalition that could put forward a prime minister candidate that would be strong enough to survive a no-confidence vote in the parliament.
What Are the Possible Outcomes?
The New Popular Front is the alliance closest to a majority so it says it should have the first chance to name a premier and form a government. On Tuesday, the group agreed on a prime minister candidate, putting an end to internal fighting over the decision. Macron was quick to dismiss the proposal, saying the left lacks a majority to form a government.
Macron has called for all parties that support the European Union and the rule of law to come together to form an administration, in an effort to create a mainstream alliance that would exclude both the far right and the far-left France Unbowed party.
This approach might allow Macron’s government to continue with support from the center right, even though it would be in a weakened form compared to his current situation.
Last week, the new lawmakers in the National Assembly reelected the centrist candidate Yael Braun-Pivet after Macron’s group struck a deal with the center right. That could be an indication of an alternative alliance that preserves a mainstream administration.
What Happens if There’s No Deal?
Macron tapped outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to stay on until a clear successor emerges and, as Bloomberg reported earlier, the president’s advisers have suggested this could take some time.
How long this should take is not subject to limits, according to constitutional experts, and in the meantime the temporary government cannot be brought down by parliament. In the past, the president hasn’t shied away from using the constitutional tools at his disposal to push through reforms despite widespread opposition among lawmakers and on the streets.
How Do the Olympics Play Into the Chaos?
The Olympics have helped Macron gain time and have allowed him to try to control the narrative. The games and the overall summer break may shift some of the country’s attention away from politics for a few weeks.
Overall, a successful Olympics may strengthen Macron. But hiccups or security incidents would have the opposite effect.
--With assistance from Tom Fevrier.
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