(Bloomberg) -- A significant increase in mpox cases and efforts to curb its spread in sub-Saharan Africa may weigh on economic activity and erode the fiscal metrics of affected countries, according to Fitch Ratings.
The illness has claimed more than 575 lives so far this year in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the epicenter of the outbreak, and a fast-spreading variant has now been detected in at least eight African countries as well as Sweden and Thailand. The World Health Organization has declared the lethal outbreak, which scientists and public health officials say was avoidable, a global health emergency.
“In the event of a substantial increase in mpox case counts, the main impact on economies from the virus and the measures to counter it would likely be on consumption and production,” the ratings company said in a statement Wednesday. “There could also be challenges managing inflationary effects, especially if food production and/or logistics are significantly disrupted.”
Key fiscal metrics such as budget deficits are also likely to be affected as governments increase spending on health care and epidemic-prevention measures while weaker economic activity depresses tax revenues, Fitch said.
“International assistance could mitigate these effects, but its timing and size is uncertain,” it said. “Rating effects would depend on the severity and the longevity of the economic and fiscal impact of the virus and the availability and size of donor support.”
The WHO launched a preparedness and response plan on Monday aimed at coordinating efforts to combat mpox and is seeking an initial $87.4 million to cover the first six months of the program that’s due to start in September. Vaccines are expected to arrive in Congo next week.
The spread of the new strain of mpox from Congo has seen the number of cases on the continent this year, from all strains of the virus that cause the disease, increase to almost 23,000 from about 19,000 last week.
While little is known about the new strain it appears to be sexually transmitted and can also be spread through other forms of close contact. The disease causes lesions that can result in blindness, disfigurement and death.
Mpox could weigh on tourism in Africa, Fitch said. That could have a significant effect on public finances in Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda — three Fitch-rated sovereigns with confirmed cases — as the industry accounts for 11% to 20% of the nations’ total goods and services export earnings, it said, citing United Nations data.
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