OPEC+ will raise oil production slightly in November as the alliance attempts to balance price stability with its long-term plan to regain market share. The move comes as traders brace for a potential supply glut heading into year-end.
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Gregory Brew, senior analyst of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, about why the group is proceeding cautiously and what signals to watch in the months ahead.
Key Takeaways
- OPEC+ will increase output by about 137,000 barrels per day in November, maintaining its gradual pace of easing supply cuts.
- Analysts say the move reflects concern about triggering another price drop below US$60 a barrel.
- Actual physical additions may be smaller due to overproduction among key members.
- The decision was received positively after rumours of a much larger hike proved false.
- Slower demand growth in China and rising non-OPEC output continue to pressure prices.
Read the full transcript below:
LINDSAY: OPEC+ will raise oil output from November amid concerns over a looming surplus in the fourth quarter. For more on that, we’re joined by Gregory Brew, senior analyst of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group. Thanks for joining us this morning.
GREGORY: Great to be on. Thanks so much.
LINDSAY: What was your main takeaway from OPEC’s latest meeting?
GREGORY: The main takeaway is that this is still a producer group moving with a degree of caution. There are broad expectations the market is heading toward a supply-demand imbalance at the end of this year and into next year. OPEC wants to show it’s in control and mindful of prices. The futures curve, while still in backwardation, suggests there’s some room to raise production — but not much. The group doesn’t want to move too quickly and risk flooding the market or pushing prices lower. Brent crude dropped last week from about US$70 to around US$64 a barrel. OPEC wants to stick to its strategy: shifting away from market management toward regaining market share and unwinding cuts by 2026.
LINDSAY: OPEC+ talked about a modest monthly production hike after oil prices fell last week. Could the group roll that back if oversupply persists?
GREGORY: The increase of about 137,000 barrels a day in November is really less than modest. That figure is a bit inflated. Many members — Iraq, Kazakhstan and the UAE among them — are already producing above their quotas. So the true increase is probably closer to 50,000 or 60,000 barrels a day, which is minimal in the broader context of OPEC output. The group might pause or slow its unwind if the market clearly shifts into oversupply — for instance, if the curve flips into contango, inventories rise sharply or prices fall into the US$50 range. But overall, I think OPEC+ wants to keep moving ahead and reach 2026 with a clean slate.
LINDSAY: What are the biggest challenges right now for the oil sector and producers?
GREGORY: Demand growth has slowed compared to previous years. China, which has supported prices through stockpiling, is seeing weaker demand growth because of rapid electrification and a surge in electric vehicle adoption. That’s reduced its role as the engine of global demand. India’s demand is still growing but following a different trajectory, with more focus on electrification as well. Elsewhere, in places like South Korea and Japan, demand is flat or falling. So without strong growth from China or elsewhere, there’s limited room for all these new barrels — not just from OPEC+, but also from the U.S., Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. The imbalance between rising supply and slower demand is the key challenge, and it’s likely to weigh on prices heading into year-end.
LINDSAY: This comes as Alberta moves ahead with a proposed new pipeline to the West Coast. Is now a good time to invest in new oil infrastructure?
GREGORY: Building any major project takes time, and demand in Asia will continue to grow over the long term. There will still be appetite for North American energy in East and South Asia. Over the longer horizon, that pipeline is likely a good investment. But in the next six to 12 months, prices will probably stay lower as supply outpaces demand. That’s going to be a challenge not just for Alberta but also for U.S. shale producers, who are already under pressure and could face more strain heading into 2026.
LINDSAY: The eight producers will meet again on Nov. 2. What do you expect from that meeting?
GREGORY: I expect OPEC+ will stay the course. They still have over a million barrels a day in cuts left to unwind and will likely continue at the same gradual pace — maybe another 137,000 barrels a day in December. I don’t see them accelerating. There were rumours of a much larger hike, around 500,000 barrels a day, but that would have rattled markets. For now, OPEC+ will move cautiously while continuing to add barrels.
LINDSAY: Finally, what are you watching for in oil markets this week?
GREGORY: Prices got a small bump as trading opened in Asia after the modest hike was announced. The market had braced for a larger increase, so the smaller move was welcomed. Brent rose from US$64 to about US$65 a barrel. But to see further gains, we’d need additional catalysts — possibly from geopolitics. Escalation in Ukraine that disrupts Russian energy exports, or tensions involving Venezuela or Iran, could create upward pressure. That’s what I’ll be watching most closely this week.
LINDSAY: Great insight as always. Thanks for joining us.
GREGORY: Thank you so much.
LINDSAY: That was Gregory Brew, senior analyst of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group.
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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Oct. 6, 2025 interview with Gregory Brew are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.
