(Bloomberg) -- Bulgaria is looking increasingly ungovernable after talks to forge a ruling coalition collapsed in early August, leaving the country facing its seventh general election in three and a half years.
The turmoil has its roots in a corruption problem that 17 years of European Union membership have failed to fix. The bloc has nudged Bulgaria to clean up its politics and make state institutions more transparent and accountable. But many prominent politicians still have ties with wealthy businessmen who have dubious and often criminal backgrounds, feeding a climate of mistrust that’s made it harder to piece together a fully functioning administration.
The chaos has stymied Bulgaria’s progress toward joining the euro currency and accessing EU funds, moves that would deepen ties with the rest of the bloc. And it offers an opening for less mainstream politicians who are sympathetic toward Russia and skeptical of further EU integration.
What’s the origin of Bulgaria’s political chaos?
The EU’s poorest member state hasn’t had a stable government since 2021, when Bulgarians took to the streets in protests against corruption that diminished the authority of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, who had run the country on and off for 12 years.
Since then, it’s been governed mostly by interim administrations appointed by President Rumen Radev that lacked the parliamentary support to execute a full policy agenda. Two short-lived exceptions were coalition cabinets appointed in 2021 and 2023 that each lasted less than a year.
The crisis has been exacerbated by a lack of public trust in the political establishment that worsened during the coronavirus pandemic. Bulgaria suffered the world’s second-highest death rate per head of population after anti-vaccine propaganda spread on social media discouraged many Bulgarians from getting a jab.
What triggered the anti-graft protests?
Revelations of influence-peddling, vote buying and other forms of graft have led to consistently poor rankings for Bulgaria in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
In early 2020, Borissov’s administration nationalized the lottery business of billionaire gambling tycoon Vasil Bozhkov, nicknamed The Skull by Bulgarian media.
Bozhkov responded by firing corruption allegations at Borissov and some of his close allies. Bozhkov eventually fled to Dubai, and an international arrest warrant was issued against him based on charges that included extortion and ordering contract killings, most of which were later dropped. His allegations against Borissov provoked a bout of political infighting involving wiretaps, leaked photos, charges against politicians and businessmen and, eventually, raids on the president’s office.
The prime minister managed to complete his term, and even won a 2021 parliamentary election. But Borissov, who began his political career hunting down gangsters for the interior ministry in the early 2000s, had lost his unassailable dominance of Bulgarian politics.
Why can’t Bulgaria break the spiral?
Public disillusionment with the political class has opened a space for newcomers. One new party was formed by the country’s most popular TV talk show host and pop star, and another by an anti-corruption group headed by two Harvard-educated businessmen. All of them promised to restore justice and bring back stable government.
But they’ve struggled to gain traction against Borissov, who maintains a broad support base in central and local government after his many years in power and has many allies in the judiciary and the media.
While his party has lost the ability to win parliamentary majorities, it remains the biggest political movement in the country. That’s made it almost impossible to form a functioning government without Borissov’s backing, something that’s unpalatable for new players who don’t want to be associated with corruption scandals and shadowy oligarchs.
The result is a stalemate that’s deepened social divisions and fed disillusion with politics, with Borissov’s party winning election after election on an ever lower turnout.
Surveys by organizations including the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Center for the Study of Democracy show Bulgaria is more vulnerable to the spread of disinformation than other European countries. This has made fertile ground for populists who previously sat on the political margins, some of them vocal backers of Russia. Support for the small Revival Party, which often echoes the Kremlin’s stance on foreign policy issues, rose nearly fivefold between 2021 and 2023.
Why is Bulgaria heading for another election?
Borissov’s party won a snap parliamentary vote in June. But he still lacked the support of most smaller parties, and had to rely on a controversial figure, Delyan Peevski, to back his government. The lawmaker and former media mogul, widely seen as the face of political graft in Bulgaria, was sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2021 for corruption, along with Bozhkov.
In the end, a power struggle inside Peevski’s party meant he was unable to give Borissov’s allies — or any other group — a working majority. Two months of coalition talks collapsed, triggering another election.
Opinion polls suggest that Borissov’s party will once again be the largest in parliament, but won’t win a majority. Yet another vote may follow in early 2025.
What does it mean for Bulgaria?
The turmoil has delayed Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro and EU-driven reforms to the judiciary and the energy sector that are needed to unlock billions of euros in post-pandemic EU recovery funds.
It’s also delayed dozens of appointments to the judiciary and the executive. Without successors, the incumbents have stayed in the roles long after their terms officially ended, leading to some legal challenges against their decisions.
While international investors have stuck with Bulgaria, drawn to its fiscal stability and low debt levels, repeatedly delayed bond sales have increased government borrowing costs.
Is Bulgaria closer to the EU or to Russia?
Bulgaria has been a committed member of the EU since joining the bloc in 2007, and there’s agreement among most of the country’s politicians that the country’s future success hinges on deeper integration with its European allies.
However, it maintains cultural, economic and political ties to Russia, and has yet to end its reliance on Moscow for energy supplies. President Radev, a NATO-trained general, has a record of making comments that are favorable to Moscow. During an election debate in 2021, Radev said that Crimea “is Russian.”
While Bulgaria’s interim governments have less room for maneuver than those with a parliamentary majority, they do have a say on policy. Bulgaria is one of a handful of EU states that still manufacture the Soviet-standard ammunition used by Ukraine’s armed forces. Yet it refused to provide military aid to Ukraine for several months after Russia’s full-scale invasion.
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