(Bloomberg) -- One of the first business surveys since the US election showed optimism about the economic outlook as well as a rush of orders that may reflect efforts to stock up in case President-elect Donald Trump raises tariffs on imports.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest manufacturing index surged a whopping 43.1 points — the most June 2020, when the economy was emerging from the initial shock of the Covid pandemic. The gauge climbed to 31.2 in November, the highest level since the end of 2021, based on survey responses collected Nov. 4-12.
“Manufacturing surveys in recent months have commonly referred to election uncertainty weighing on the outlook for activity — with that uncertainty lifted, we think surveys may begin to show some improvement,” Bloomberg Economics’ Chris Collins said in a note.
The new orders component of the index jumped to the strongest reading since late 2021.
A measure of Empire State manufacturers’ six-month outlook for business activity registered the second-strongest print since early 2022.
Readings above zero indicate growth and the survey of the state’s producers also illustrated new orders swung sharply into expansion territory, to its highest level since November 2021.
Combined with a surge in West Coast port activity, the figures indicate companies are also re-doubling efforts to avoid delivery snags from a potential strike early next year at ports on the East and Gulf Coasts.
Other businesses have been importing merchandise before the tariff increases promised by Trump, and retailers have been busy stocking up for the holiday-shopping season. Consumer demand remains solid, too, with figures Friday showing store sales advanced in October, fueled largely by a jump in motor vehicle purchases.
The 0.4% gain in overall retail sales followed an upwardly revised 0.8% jump in September that underscores momentum in household demand entering the fourth quarter.
The retail figures “point to a still-strong consumer spending environment, underpinned by sturdy labor market conditions,” Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. “Overall, the retail sales report suggests the economy is showing little signs of a material downshift ... at least anytime soon.”
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