(Bloomberg) -- Tunisia kicked off its election season with a wave of arrests targeting rivals and critics of President Kais Saied, stirring fears of a barely-contested vote that would deal a hammer blow to what was once the Arab world’s most progressive democracy.
Saied, an outsider who was surprise victor in 2019, has yet to confirm he’ll run in the Oct. 6 presidential ballot. But in a matter of days, three prominent aspiring candidates have faced police action in a crackdown that’s also swept up members of the largest remaining opposition party.
The 66-year-old former constitutional law professor has been accused of seeking to reinstate a dictatorship in the North African nation ever since seizing wide-ranging prerogatives in July 2021. Even so, the swiftness and severity of authorities’ recent actions has been a surprise.
Saied is playing “the stereotypical dictators game” ensuring both that he has no real electoral challengers and “there’s not even any conversation of alternatives” for the country, said Tarek Megirisi, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The birthplace of the 2011 Arab pro-democracy protests that convulsed the region, Tunisia eventually stood alone in preserving those hard-won political freedoms. But years of economic malaise and feuding by a new elite opened the door for populists like Saied, who presents himself as on a crusade against corruption and foreign meddling.
His rule has brought little improvement for an agriculture and tourism-reliant economy dogged by low growth and high youth unemployment. Talks for a $1.9 billion International Monetary Fund rescue package have stalled and relations are febrile with the European Union. The bloc recently resumed talks to support Tunisia’s finances, a move it hopes will curb illicit migration across the Mediterranean.
Funding from the likes of Saudi Arabia and Afreximbank, as well as a surprising windfall from olive oil, are helping keep the country afloat. While Tunisia’s debt traded in distressed territory at the start of 2024, a turnaround saw the spread on its bonds over Treasuries fall to the lowest in more than four years.
Even so, Tunisia’s dollar-bonds trade at yields of around 15%, one of the highest levels for any government globally, underscoring investors’ continued nervousness about the country’s financial position.
Pressing On
Electoral authorities are pressing ahead with the trappings of a free vote. On Thursday, they announced 69 candidates had taken receipt of endorsement forms, the first step in registering a presidential run.
It wasn’t clear if that number included Ayad Loumi, an ex-lawmaker ordered arrested Tuesday for allegedly violating electoral rules during the 2019 vote, where he’d helped the campaign of Saied’s main rival.
That action followed a police order restricting the movements of another hopeful, Abdellatif Mekki, in connection with an investigation dating back to 2014. A third challenger, Lotfi Mraihi, was arrested in a probe into alleged money-laundering.
In other events, the Islamist Ennahda party — previously a major player in Tunisia’s post-revolt parliament — said its secretary general and two other members were arrested. The group has vowed neither to enter or endorse any candidate.
Officials at Tunisia’s interior ministry and election commission didn’t respond to written requests for comment, nor did a presidential spokesman.
Another potential competitor, Olfa Hamdi, former head of state carrier Tunisair, found herself disqualified thanks to a new rule raising the minimum age of candidates to 40 from 35.
“The political crisis is deepening as the current president is in the minority and refused to work with a coalition or conduct any type of political, social or economic dialogue,” the 37-year-old, who called the decision unconstitutional, said in comments to Bloomberg.
‘Stranglehold’ on Media
Tunisian media, meanwhile, is seeing growing pressure. Reporters with state news agency TAP have accused management of censoring coverage of Saied’s other would-be opponents Abir Moussi and Mondher Znaidi. Main press union SNJT is urging an end to the “stranglehold on public media” and the release of jailed reporters.
Saied appears to have managed to “neutralize all the main challenges” to his new system “whether it’s external debt, international pressure or the mobilization of the opposition,” said Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group.
“Tunisia is on an authoritarian path and these elections are only meant to confirm the president in power and strengthen his hand,” he said.
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