(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your week started:

  • Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.
    • Against that backdrop, Bloomberg economists examine whether the global economy is in a slowdown or meltdown.
  • Industrial output in the euro area fell the most in almost three years in November, raising questions over the economy’s ability to regain momentum after a broad-based slowdown.
    • Also in Europe, Italy’s economy is probably in a phase of stagnation, not recession, Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said in a newspaper interview, adding that the country’s deficit will be kept under control.
  • Chinese trade collapsed at the end of last year, with both exports and imports unexpectedly shrinking in December after a weak November. The slump in both domestic and foreign demand illustrates the weakening economy and hurts China’s position as it looks to negotiate an end to the trade war.
  • In the wake of the Fed’s massive communication campaign following the December FOMC meeting, Bloomberg Economics is revising its 2019 forecast to two interest-rate increases from three.
  • Finally, here’s a look at how millennial women are participating in the American job market at levels last seen in 2000.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Fergal O'Brien

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