(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports unexpectedly fell in September as natural disasters disrupted economic activity, making it difficult to assess the current impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute on Japanese shipments.

Natural disasters in September make it difficult to build an accurate picture of the latest trends in Japan’s exports. Typhoon Jebi closed a major airport that is the departure point for around 7 percent of the nation’s shipments in Japan’s manufacturing heartland around Osaka. An earthquake in Hokkaido cut power to the entire island in Japan’s north, disrupting supply chains. Meanwhile, higher energy prices continue to feed gains in imports. Analysts will likely have to wait for data over the coming months before they can determine whether external demand has really taken a turn for the worse and the likely fallout for Japan from the trade war between its biggest trading partners: China and the U.S.

Economist Views

  • “It’s just hard to see a real trend in exports this time given the natural disasters,” Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas SA, said before today’s report was released. “What’s certain is that exports don’t have the power needed to lead Japan’s recovery.”
  • Japan’s exports have been losing momentum as growth in the Chinese and European economies slows, she said, adding that she was looking to see if that weakness would continue over the coming months.
  • She also flagged rising oil prices as a concern for the overall trade balance. "We’ll have to see how much it squeezes the trade surplus.”
  • Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase and Co., expects exports to pick up toward the end of the year. “We have seen little evidence of a drag from the trade friction between China and U.S.,” he said, ahead of the release.

Other Details

  • The adjusted trade balance showed a deficit of 238.9 billion yen (forecast -333.4 billion yen).
  • Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, fell 1.7 percent in September from the previous year.
  • Those to the U.S. slipped 0.2 percent.
  • Shipments to the EU decreased 4.1 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brett Miller at bmiller30@bloomberg.net, Henry Hoenig, Paul Jackson

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