(Bloomberg) -- Countries’ current emission cutting plans indicate there’s little chance that the world can avoid global warming rising above levels needed to avert more catastrophic weather events, according to the United Nations.
The plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, show that global greenhouse gas emissions will increase 16% by 2030 from 2010 levels and that could mean that temperatures rise by about 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. More than 70 countries -- including India and China -- are yet to submit revised proposals.
“This is breaking the promise made six years ago to pursue the 1.5-degree Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement,” Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, said in an emailed statement. “Failure to meet this goal will be measured in the massive loss of lives and livelihoods.”
The report comes ahead of the UN’s 26th Conference of the Parties taking place in Glasgow in six weeks time, where a key aim is to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees. There are a number of sticking points which could prevent an agreement, one of which is countries not submitting revised emissions cutting plans beforehand.
Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said that countries could submit NDCs or update old ones at any time, including in the run-up to COP26. The body will publish an updated report on Oct. 25 for those who have submitted on or before Oct. 12, she said.
For the 113 parties that have put forward revised plans, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease by 12% in 2030 compared to 2010, the report said.
“Those nations which have submitted new and ambitious climate plans are already bending the curve of emissions downwards,” said Alok Sharma, COP26 president. “But without action from all countries, especially the biggest economies, these efforts risk being in vain.”
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