(Bloomberg) -- China’s stock-market rescue package should help boost sentiment in the short term, market participants say, though they question how easy it will be to implement.

Policymakers are considering a package of measures to bolster the stock market that would mobilize more than 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion), according to people familiar with the matter. The moves come as Chinese and Hong Kong shares continue to drop, with the CSI 300 Index off more than 6% year-to-date. Snowball derivatives, which trigger losses below certain levels on some indexes, may also be playing a role. 

Here is what market watchers are saying about the rescue package:

Daisy Li, fund manager at EFG Asset Management:

  • “The biggest question I have is how the SOEs will come up with 2 trillion yuan from their offshore accounts and why they will choose to invest onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link”
  • Still, market participants really hope that a stabilization fund can come in to support the market, given how bad things have been
  • “We are in need of a white knight to boost some confidence”

Liu Xiaodong, partner at Shanghai Power Asset Mgmt Co. 

  • It’s a huge piece of good news at first glance — but there are a lot of overhangs and complications, which means it might not materialize as soon as people hope
  • If they seek funds from SOEs, there are a lot of questions, such as how much cash is available, how willing are these firms to take part, and whether the funds would be moved all at once or in phases

Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management in Singapore

  • Frequently, packages which target the stock market do have an effect but it can be very short-lived if not accompanied by more fundamental changes
  • “Without more forceful economic and regulatory policy actions, it will not lead to the beginning of a bull market in China”

Michelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale HK Branch. 

  • An equity rescue package will help sentiment, especially if the recent selloff could be driven by technical factors such as snowball derivatives
  • “The 2015 experience shows that even when the government steps up buying, the rally is not necessarily sustainable unless we have a bigger stimulus package to address the economic issues.”

Li Weiqing, fund manager at JH Investment Management Co.,Ltd:

  • This is a massive boost to confidence, and if true, shows that the authorities have acknowledged the fact that all of the other measures that have been rolled out since the pledge to boost capital markets are not working, and the only solution is to show confidence with actions rather than words
  • It’s hard to tell whether the gains will sustain, or whether people will sell into the rally
  • The state council comments affirm that top policy makers see this as important

Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee 

  • The selloff has reached irrational levels due to a crisis of confidence. Much of it is due to the perception that the government doesn’t care about the markets
  • A rescue package may be insufficient on its own to prop up the market in terms of dollar value injected, but will certainly help dispel the idea that the government doesn’t care

Hao Hong, economist at Grow Investment Group

  • The amount of 2 trillion-plus yuan will be enough for the market to stage a technical rebound. At these oversold levels, it wouldn’t take much to ignite a countertrend rebound
  • The snowball structured products are weighing on the market, amounting to 300 billion yuan or more in notional value. So 2 trillion yuan is good to offset the pressure from forced selling. That said, whether it can reverse the downtrend trend still remains to be seen.

Kerry Goh, chief investment officer at Kamet Capital Partners Pte.

  • About 15 billion of long-only money left Hong Kong/China last year, so the 2 trillion yuan size of the fund should be large enough to reverse the trend
  • Furthermore, this should give confidence to investors that the government heard their need for larger stimulus

Marvin Chen, strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence  

  • The potential support package should be able to stem declines in the short term and stabilize markets into the Lunar New Year, but state buying alone has historically had limited success in turning around market sentiment if not followed up by further measures

Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore

  • “I am doubtful that the rebound in Chinese equities on the back of this rescue package news is sustainable so long as the fundamental growth trajectory doesn’t change”

Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Grp.

  • “If the rescue plan is implemented and is able to turn the current negative sentiment toward Chinese assets around, then it can help to strengthen the yuan further,” particularly if it encourages exporters to start to convert some of their accumulated foreign currency receipts

Ma Cheng, chairman of Shenzhen Juze Investment Management Co.

  • The launch of the stabilization fund is urgent, and is beneficial to safeguard China’s core asset interests

 

--With assistance from Tania Chen, Karl Lester M. Yap, Kelly Li, Qizi Sun and Wenjin Lv.

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