(Bloomberg) -- Allianz SE chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian said the US economy is on “a bumpy journey to a better destination,” though the risk of a Federal Reserve overshoot that tips the country into recession persists.

“Not only does it have to overcome inflation, but it has to restore its credibility,” El-Erian said of the US central bank in a CBS News interview Sunday. “So yes, I fear we risk a very high probability of a damaging recession that was totally avoidable.”

El-Erian, a frequent Fed critic, blamed the central bank for that risk by “slamming on the brakes this year” after being criticized for being slow off the mark to counter inflation running at four-decade highs. 

The Fed has raised its benchmark by 75-basis-point three times in a row and comments by Fed policy makers suggest they’re on track to deliver a fourth such increase next month.

Asked on CBS’s “Face the Nation” about the possibility of a so-called soft landing for the economy, El-Erian cited a shift in Chair Jay Powell’s public comments toward saying that some pain is inevitable in the Fed’s inflation fight. 

The Fed last raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Sept. 21 and economic data last week kept up pressure on for another hike, roiling markets. The Fed’s strategy is sensitive to data, but officials have made plain that it would take a lot to push them off the path toward a 4.5% benchmark rate. 

Prices in the US rose 6.2% for the year ending August, the 18th consecutive month of annual inflation above their 2% target, while US employers added 263,000 people to payrolls in September, an indication that underlying demand remains sturdy. 

OPEC and its allies announcement of oil production cuts and a strong September jobs report bolster the case for another 75-basis-point increase. 

While OPEC+’s decision “does hurt the US,” it shouldn’t have caught anyone by surprise, El-Erian said. 

“OPEC is looking to protect oil prices in the context of declining demand,” he said. “This shouldn’t come have come as a big surprise. That’s what they do. That’s their history, but it’s certainly not good news for the US economy.”

El-Erian also is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and a Bloomberg contributor.

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