(Bloomberg) -- With just three months to go until a full European ban on seaborne imports of Russian oil enters into force, the continent remains very dependent on Moscow for supply.

Flows to European Union countries have recovered to about 1 million barrels a day since early August. That’s up from levels seen in late July, but down sharply from peaks in April and June. It represents a huge chunk of the bloc’s overall supply. 

The ban enters into force on Dec. 5, exactly three months from now, but Europeans’ cargo buying will slow down at least a month before then to ensure compliance. The future of Russian oil is pivotal to the global market. If the ban prevents exports — a concern among US officials — then that would hit global supplies. If exports flow elsewhere, then the result may well be a complicated and expensive reshuffling of global cargo flows.

Shipments of all Russian crude in the week to Sept. 2 rose to a four week high, according to vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg. All figures have been revised to remove cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. These are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk.

The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export grade. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies. Transit crude is specifically exempted from European Union sanctions on Russia’s seaborne shipments that are due to come into effect in December.

Total flows of Russian seaborne crude rose to 3.32 million barrels a day in the seven days to Sept. 2. That compares with 2.95 million the previous week. Using a four-week moving average to smooth out variability in the figures, shipments edged lower to 3.06 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 2, down from 3.08 million barrels a day in the period to Aug. 26.

Based on current destinations, the average flow of Russian crude to Asia continued to slide, dropping to 1.59 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 2, from more than 2.1 million barrels a day in April and May.

Crude Flows by Destination:

  • Europe

Exports to Mediterranean countries edged lower in the four weeks to Sept. 2.

The volume shipped from Russia to northern Europe rose to its highest level in six weeks.

Combined flows to Bulgaria and Romania fell back slightly in the four weeks to Sept. 2.

  • Asia

The volume of Russian crude on tankers showing destinations in Asia was little changed in the four weeks to Sept. 2, compared with the period ending Aug. 26. All of the tankers carrying crude to unidentified Asian destinations are signaling Port Said or the Suez Canal, with final discharge points unlikely to be apparent until they have passed through the waterway into the Red Sea, at the earliest.

Flows by Export Location

Aggregate flows of Russian crude rose by 366,000 barrels a day, or 12%, in the seven days to Sept. 2, compared with the previous week. Flows were higher from all export regions except the Baltic. Figures exclude volumes from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade.

Export Revenue

Inflows to the Kremlin's war chest from its crude-export duty remain higher than they were before the war, with weekly income rebounding to $167 million in the seven days to Sept. 2.

Export duty rates for September are 2% lower than they were in August, due to a lower price realized for sales of its flagship Urals crude between mid-July and mid-August. The discount for Urals against Brent crude during that period narrowed to about $18.68 a barrel, down from a high of about $34.39 a barrel from mid-April to mid-May, according to Bloomberg calculations using figures published by the Russian Ministry of Finance. 

Origin-to-Location Flows

The following charts show the number of ships leaving each export terminal and the destinations of crude cargoes from the four export regions.

A total of 32 tankers loaded 22.2 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Sept. 2, vessel-tracking data and port agent reports show. That’s up by 2.6 million barrels, reversing the previous week’s drop. Destinations are based on where vessels signal they are heading at the time of writing, and some will almost certainly change as voyages progress. All figures have been revised to exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade.

The total volume of crude on ships loading Russian crude from Baltic terminals fell for a second week, with shipments to the Mediterranean falling to a five-week low.

Shipments from Novorossiysk in the Black Sea surged to their highest since May.

Arctic shipments rebounded, recovering the losses of the past two weeks.

Crude flows from Russia’s eastern oil terminals recovered the previous week’s loss, with a first shipment of ESPO crude on a tanker heading to Colombo in Sri Lanka. Shipments are expected to drop in the week to Sept. 9, with Super Typhoon Hinnamnor forecast to pass over Kozmino on Tuesday.

Note: This story forms part of a regular weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the export duty revenues earned from them by the Russian government. 

Note: All figures have been revised to exclude cargoes owned by Kazakhstan’s KazTransOil JSC, which transit Russia and are shipped from Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga.

Note: Aggregate weekly seaborne flows from Russian ports in the Baltic, Black Sea, Arctic and Pacific can be found on the Bloomberg terminal by typing {ALLX CUR1 }

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