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Good morning. The U.S. Federal Reserve will have quite an act to follow after the European Central Bank’s comments, Donald Trump has started his re-election campaign and Boris Johnson remains the favorite to be the U.K. next Prime Minister. Here’s what’s moving markets. 

Mario’s Salvo

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi shook the market. He pointed decisively towards more stimulus measures centered on rate cuts, blaming prolonged economic uncertainty for the bank having to reopen its toolkit. Government bonds had a field day and stocks jumped. U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, was not thrilled, but Draghi’s colleague Peter Praet also said the ECB is not to blame for all the uncertainty. The next ECB meeting will be a live one, but before starting to consider that, and indeed the Bank of England on Thursday, it’s going to be the Federal Reserve that takes center stage...

Your Move, Jay

Over to Jerome Powell and his colleagues, with the Fed decision due after Europe closes on Wednesday. The attention will be on when the central bank is going to cut rates, with no move expected this week but a quarter-point cut considered the most likely move eventually. As Powell and his cohort are becoming accustomed to, they’ll make the decision in the shadow of a Trump administration which is said to have looked into the legality of demoting the chair. It’s the latest in a now storied history of Trump criticizing the Fed which continues to pose a threat to the bank’s independence.

Trump Check

Donald Trump is having a busy start to the week, even beyond his criticism of the ECB and reports that he considered demoting the Fed chair. The president kicked off his re-election campaign in Orlando, Florida with a speech filled with grievances and attacks on the Democratic contenders for his job. That came after he had stoked a little optimism on the trade front by saying he had already talked to Chinese leader Xi Jinping ahead of the G-20 summit later this month and would continue negotiations towards reaching a deal.

Johnson’s to Lose

And then there were five. The candidates vying to be the U.K.’s next prime minister was whittled down to five ahead of the second debate in the race and will be cut to the final two by the end of the week. Boris Johnson, who skipped debate number one, extended his lead to quite a significant margin and then used the debate to provide a few more details on how he intends to sort out the Brexit mess. Anyone seeking some real clarity on his plans, or indeed those of his rivals, may be a touch disappointed.

Coming Up...

Optimism on the trade front and bets on central bank stimulus sent stocks in Asia higher, following their European and U.S. peers. European stock futures are currently pointing to a pretty flat open after yesterday’s cheer. Oil prices also held gains as OPEC and its partners move closer to breaking an impasse on when they will next meet to discuss the supply outlook. Oil inventory data from the U.S. is due in the European afternoon, along with a rate decision from Brazil’s central bank.

What We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

  • China’s most advanced big brother experiment is a mess.
  • Facebook wants its cryptocurrency to rival the dollar.
  • Half the world’s power will be from wind and solar by 2050.
  • Bird brain experts are the hottest hire in Silicon Valley.
  • The challenge of being a gay expat.
  • London is pushing motorists towards electric cars.
  • Two new Earth-like planets have been discovered.

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To contact the author of this story: Sam Unsted in London at sunsted@bloomberg.net

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