JPMorgan Traders See Nvidia, Economy Fueling S&P 500 Gains

Alexandra Semenova, Bloomberg News

, Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Another round of blowout earnings from artificial-intelligence darling Nvidia Corp. and the economy’s steady advance mean the S&P 500 Index likely has further room to rise, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.

“With the AI-theme still delivering and the macro hypothesis intact, we are likely to continue to make new all-time highs,” the team including Head of US Market Intelligence Andrew Tyler wrote in a note to clients. He sees a mix of at or above-trend gross domestic product growth, positive earnings, and the Federal Reserve on pause as a recipe for a bull market.

The S&P 500 was slightly higher Thursday, on track for its 25th record this year, after a higher-than-expected sales forecast from Nvidia drove the company’s shares past the $1,000 milestone. The move extends a more than 5% advance in the index so far in May, driven by strong financial results from Corporate America and expectations that the Fed will ease policy by the end of this year.

Chipmaker Nvidia, a major driver of the stock market’s momentum and a linchpin of the artificial-intelligence rollout, jumped some 10% after the bullish sales forecast showed that AI investment spending remains strong. The company is responsible for about one-fourth of the gains in the S&P 500 this year.

From here, JPMorgan traders see the benchmark’s advance continuing, albeit at a slower pace, as investors seek out AI plays in smaller segments and the stock market rally broadens to pockets beyond megacap technology.

Tyler recommends a barbell portfolio strategy composed of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks and semiconductor companies, along with value and cyclicals like banks, credit cards, automakers and suppliers, and homebuilders.

The upbeat view is once again at loggerheads with the bank’s own chief market strategist, Marko Kolanovic, who just days ago said he does not currently see stocks as an attractive investment given a litany of risks, including lofty valuations, sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

While it’s not unusual for firms to have different views under one roof, the disconnect at JPMorgan has been amplified since last year, with Tyler correctly calling for all-time highs as Kolanovic predicted a rout that has so far failed to materialize.

--With assistance from Natalia Kniazhevich.

(Adds context on scale of expected rise in fifth paragraph.)