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Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • European Central Bank officials meeting next month will receive new forecasts that are likely to show inflation peaking at a higher rate than expected earlier, before settling at a lower level
  • The commitments made by the ECB in its recent strategy review will be put to the test next year, writes Bloomberg Economics’ David Powell. The Governing Council will have to hold firm in the face of the temporary surge in inflation and keep its eyes on the medium term
  • The omicron variant is dealing a blow to optimistic hopes that the world economy would enter 2022 on a firmer footing
    • The new coronavirus variant is set to test the European economy’s recent ability to withstand fresh restrictions on activity
    • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic played down the risk of omicron to the U.S. economy and said he was open to scaling back asset purchases at a faster pace
  • U.S. employers probably added over half a million workers for a second straight month, pushing the job market closer to full recovery. With U.S. payrolls as key data, here’s what’s to look out for in the world economy this week
  • China’s manufacturing activity likely remained subdued in November, with weak domestic demand outweighing any relief that came from an easing in energy shortages. Heading into 2022, China’s economy is facing multiple risks and Bloomberg Economics expects the government to set the growth target for 2022 in a 5-6% range
  • Japan’s retail sales increased for a second straight month, as households resumed spending after authorities lifted an extended state of emergency over the virus and higher fuel prices pushed up the total 

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