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Nov 27, 2023

Analysts react to Shopify’s record-breaking Black Friday sales

Shopify sees US$4.1 billion in global sales on Black Friday

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Shopify Inc. says its merchants raked in US$4.1 billion in worldwide sales on Black Friday, numbers that analysts say demonstrate the company’s increasing share of the online retail market as more consumers shift to digital holiday shopping.

The figures set a Black Friday record for the Canadian e-commerce giant and represent a 22 per cent increase in global sales compared to last year, according to the company, with sales growth in Canada and the U.S. continuing on Cyber Monday.

As of 2 p.m. on Monday, Shopify said that sales by their merchants in the U.S. have grown by 33 per cent since Cyber Monday last year, while sales in Canada have grown by 19 per cent.

“Shopify is gaining share from online sales, which is significantly still gaining share from overall retail,” Gil Luria, senior software analyst with wealth management firm D.A. Davidson told BNN Bloomberg in a Monday television interview.

“They're growing faster than Amazon, and they're growing faster than their direct competitors. That's why there's so much excitement around Shopify shares these days.”

Shopify shares were up by more than four per cent on Monday afternoon as investors digested the numbers from the busy holiday shopping weekend.

SALES DATA BREAKDOWN

Globally, sales per minute peaked at US$4.2 million at 12:01 ET on Friday, Shopify said. Top-selling countries for the entire Black Friday weekend were the U.S., U.K. and Australia.

Apparel and accessories, health and beauty, and home and garden products were the top products by orders, and the average cart price was US$107.18.

In Canada, the country’s three largest cities – Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver – saw the most sales this past weekend, with an average cart price of $171.60, according to Shopify’s data.

The top product categories bought by Canadian consumers were cosmetics, necklaces, shirts and tops, earrings and underwear. Shopify said sales by their merchants in Canada grew by 19 per cent compared to Black Friday weekend last year.

WHAT ARE ANALYSTS SAYING?

RBC Capital Markets analysts echoed Luria in a Monday note, noting that Black Friday sales at Shopify grew at a faster pace than many of their competitors, such as BigCommerce, Adobe and Salesforce.

“We believe Shopify’s faster growth than the broader market stems from new merchant wins, the faster growth of e-commerce relative to retail sales, and market share gains at Shopify’s merchants,” the note said.

A note from TD Securities analysts said retail shoppers are increasingly moving online to find the best prices for retail products, citing Black Friday data from Mastercard.

“(Shopify’s) strong volumes were corroborated by Mastercard, which reported that U.S. Black Friday e-commerce sales were up 8.5 per cent year-over-year,” the Monday note said.

“In-store sales were more muted, with Mastercard reporting 1.1 per cent growth year-over-year, driven by consumer appetite to more effectively navigate different channels to compare prices.”

HOLIDAY SEASON OUTLOOK

Luria said that although Shopify’s successful Black Friday weekend was a good start to the holiday shopping season, he added that “the way the weekend goes isn't always the way the entire season goes.”

“We have to wait to see how the rest of the holiday season plays out,” he said.

“Over the last couple of decades, more and more sales have shifted online, and more and more of it is happening on that upfront weekend.”

Luria noted that prior to the rise of e-commerce and rapid deliveries, shoppers didn’t have the option to purchase such a large number of products all at once, and have them arrive in time for Christmas and other holidays.

“Shopify highlighted this weekend with their specialized website, they can handle a tremendous amount of volume,” he said.

“A lot more of the sales are happening up front, and we have to be patient about how the rest of the holiday season plays out.”