Bill Harris, partner and portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management
Focus: Canadian large and mid-caps

MARKET OUTLOOK

We’re positive on Canadian energy stocks for the first time in five years. Over that period, we have tried unsuccessfully and been stopped out of our attempts to get invested. Now, valuations are very low, the companies are making money, we have had a technical reversal of the down trend and we have a good story for why it can get better. 

For Western Canadian crude it looks like there will be enough pipeline capacity by 2022 and that is not that far away in stock market terms. The wild card is that Permian Basin production in the U.S. can go from 4 million today to 6 million barrels per day in the next five years. However the U.S. record on this kind of thing is that production goes from 4 million and spikes to 8 million before it settles at 6 million barrels per day. That is a lot of oil and it will affect prices.

The Canadian natural gas market is also a good news story. Supply is actually down and pipeline capacity is improving. Industrial applications are being built and the Kitimat LNG project looks like it is going ahead.

TOP PICKS

ARC RESOURCES (ARX:CT)

CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES (CNQ:CT)

WHITECAP RESOURCES (WCP:CT)

 

DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND
ARX Y Y Y
CNQ Y Y Y
WCP Y Y Y

 

PAST PICKS: OCT. 5, 2018

ALTAGAS (ALA:CT)

  • Then: $20.75
  • Now: $18.96
  • Return: -9%
  • Total return: -3%

KEYERA (KEY:CT)

  • Then: $34.59
  • Now: $33.37
  • Return: -4%
  • Total return: 2%

ARC RESOURCES (ARX:CT)

  • Then: $14.11
  • Now: $6.58
  • Return: -54%
  • Total return: -50%

Total return average: -17%

 

DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND
ALA N N N
KEY Y Y Y
ARX Y Y Y

 

WEBSITE: www.avenueinvestment.com