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Feb 14, 2019

Canada Goose slumps amid U.S. retail rout after raising outlook

Canada Goose delays opening Beijing store amid Huawei tensions

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Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS.TO) boosted its annual forecast for the second time in six months, signaling its premium parkas remain popular with Chinese shoppers amid a diplomatic spat between China and Canada and calls for a boycott of the brand.

But U.S. shares of the Toronto-based company tanked 7.4 per cent in New York amid a rout in retail stocks after U.S. government data showed retail sales in the country unexpectedly dropped in December. Based on the “strength” of the nine months ended Dec. 31, Canada Goose said revenue will rise in the mid-to-high 30s on a percentage basis, compared with a November forecast of at least 30 percent. Last quarter, sales climbed 50 percent to $399.3 million, topping the $360 million average of analysts’ estimates.

Key Insights

  • The outlook could help assuage concerns about the company’s expansion in China, where the opening of a Beijing flagship store was delayed two weeks in December amid escalating tensions between the two countries following the arrest of Huawei Technologies Co.’s finance chief.
  • Canada Goose said Thursday that the forecast includes the establishment of its country office in Greater China to “lead market development efforts.” The company had made a splashy entry into Greater China in November with the opening of a Hong Kong store, just before the Huawei affair. The company also opened stores in cities including Montreal and Vancouver, British Columbia, last quarter, helping boost direct-to-consumer sales as the weather grew colder.
  • The results show that analysts’ initial scans of North America e-commerce sites, which showed many models as sold out or selling fast, were on the mark. Growth in direct-to-consumer sales helped boost margins during the quarter. The company maintained its forecast for Ebitda margins, which exclude items such as taxes and depreciation, to grow 150 percentage points for the fiscal year.

Market Reaction

Canada Goose’s U.S. shares were down 7.4 per cent to US$54.79 at 9:51 a.m. in New York after initially rising in premarket trading following the results.