We are decreasing exposure to TSX while adding U.S. exposure: Purpose's Basinger
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 167.50 points higher on Monday to 19,028.86 in a broad-based rally led by materials and energy.
Trading volume was 54.29 per cent below the 100-day average as U.S. markets were closed for the July 4th holiday and many traders had the day off.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. and Barrick Gold Corp. helped drive the Canadian benchmark higher.
Despite the upbeat day on the TSX though, it’s been a volatile past couple of months for North American stocks as fears of an economic recession take hold.
“Recession risk is certainly elevated. And I think what we're starting to see now is a lot of those economic revisions starting to come down. And we're also probably going to start to see a lot of the earnings revisions start to come down because earnings have actually stayed relatively optimistic up until recently,” said Craig Basinger, chief market strategist at Purpose Investments, in an interview on Monday.
He said he’s adjusted his clients’ portfolios and has lowered exposure to Canadian stocks, in favour of U.S. equities.
“We're increasing U.S. a little bit, which had been underweight since the beginning of the year. We're actually raising bonds -- our weight in bonds -- from underweight to market weight. And again, a lot of that has to do with the more attractive yields that are available in the bond universe,” Basinger said.
Canada’s economy has benefitted from higher oil prices, but Basinger said if a recession is indeed on the horizon, then Canada “is certainly not the best place to be” because of its sensitivity to interest rates, considering real estate is such a major part of the domestic economy.
“We just thought, you know what, we're going to take some off the table on Canada -- we had it as an overweight, which worked out well. Went back down to sort of a neutral position,” he said.
“U.S. -- we were underweight because of concentration because of valuations, because of too much growth in that market, but a lot of that has been taken out. And we do like U.S. dollar exposure here as well.”