(Bloomberg) -- Investors disappointed by the Communist Party’s lack of policy guidance at its recent congress can brace for a string of meetings in coming weeks that could shed light on how top officials plan to manage the immediate risks to China’s economy.  

The ruling party is set to lay out policy priorities for 2023 and beyond in several high-level events over the next eight or so weeks. Key among them will be an early December meeting of the new 24-member Politburo -- now packed with President Xi Jinping’s loyalists -- which will set the tone for future economic policy.

Top of mind for investors is whether Beijing will begin easing up on its zero-tolerance approach to combating Covid outbreaks. Financial markets have been whipsawed this week by rumors of a major shift in policy, even though officials said Wednesday they’re still committed to the strategy. While the Politburo may not directly address the issue, language around Zero Covid and the relationship with economic growth will be closely scrutinized.

The Politburo may give guidance on the economic growth target for next year -- something that will be closely watched given how officials have been downplaying this year’s goal of around 5.5% since it became unattainable. It’s clear this year’s target will be missed by a wide margin - the the first time that’s happened since the government began setting them in the early 1990s.

Key to the growth outlook for next year will be supportive monetary and fiscal policies as well as incremental easing for the property sector, analysts say.

“Beijing will likely take pragmatic measures to tackle property and Covid challenges,” said Yu Xiangrong, chief China economist for Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. “More support could come in the coming months” for the property sector, he said.

Here are the main policy signals to expect:

Growth Target

Even though an economic growth target may only be revealed at the annual legislative meeting next March, language from the meetings around the importance of growth will shed some light on authorities’ thinking. 

Officials have downplayed the speed of gross domestic product expansion in recent years, as they seek a more sustainable growth model. In his report to the party congress in October, Xi emphasized that economic development was the party’s “top priority,” but added that development needs to be balanced with national security. 

Citigroup’s Yu expects the government to set the growth target at “around 5.5%” for 2023. That’s the same target as this year, but may be more attainable given this year’s low base of comparison. Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing forecast a binding target of above 5% growth. The consensus forecasts in the most recent Bloomberg survey of economists is for the economy to expand 4.9% in 2023, picking up from an expected 3.3% expansion this year. 

Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.’s economist Bruce Pang expects top leaders to signal that GDP growth is placed among a matrix of development goals such as stabilizing employment and business.

Covid and Property

The upcoming meetings are unlikely to directly address any specific changes to the Zero Covid strategy that’s weighing on economic activity. But the Politburo conference will probably mention Covid control, and any changes in language around how leaders view it in relation to economic growth could impact market expectations, according to Liu Peiqian, chief China economist at NatWest Group Plc. 

While a change in Covid policies remains highly uncertain, many economists expect no meaningful loosening before the annual legislative session in March, when the next government will be formed. The last economy-themed Politburo meeting in July stressed the need to look at virus prevention and economic growth “from a political point of view” 

Although the politburo didn’t elaborate on what that meant, the phrase implies that in addition to being a public health issue, Covid control should be considered from the political angle as well, including how its handling might affect social stability or reflect on the Communist Party and China’s system of governance. The party has said repeatedly that preserving its leadership over the country is the top political priority.

Economists are more optimistic on the prospects for further marginal easing of housing policies, though few expect an all-out stimulus package given that Xi repeated at the congress the statement that housing is not for speculation. Easing measures may include reducing down payment requirements and cutting mortgage rates, as well as additional funding support for property developers, according to UBS Group AG. 

Macro Policies

Both monetary and fiscal policy are likely to stay supportive, though there may not be a rhetorical change from previous meetings, said Citigroup’s Yu. Any further rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China could depend on economic data, while fiscal support for infrastructure investment is likely to continue, he said. 

Monetary policy is likely to play a supportive role and focus on boosting credit, said NatWest’s Liu, adding that she sees greater room for fiscal easing. Beijing has increased financing support for policy banks to invest in infrastructure in recent months and expanded local governments’ special bond quotas to raise funds for such projects.

Zheshang Securities Co. economists led by Li Chao forecast the national legislature will set a budget deficit target for 2023 of 3.2% of GDP, higher than the 2.8% target for this year. That means the deficit could top 4 trillion yuan ($548 billion), which would be a record high, they wrote in a recent report. The quota for new local government special bonds may remain unchanged from this year’s 3.65 trillion yuan, though local authorities are set to sell more refinancing bonds as they face an increase in maturing debt, according to the report.

Financial Security

The National Financial Work Conference, which has a longer time horizon than the rest of the meetings, will provide important guidance on how officials plan to proceed with financial reforms, after the government spent the past five years cracking down on excessive debt and risky practices. One potential topic is financial security, which could mean a more prudent approach in opening up capital markets, and also a push to expand the international use of the yuan, according to NatWest’s Liu.

The meeting will likely align economic goals and financial reform goals, according to economists at HSBC Holdings Plc including Liu Jing. 

“Longstanding goals of preventing financial risk as well as further progress towards improving monetary policy implementation are expected to be in focus,” they wrote in a recent report.

--With assistance from Colum Murphy.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.