(Bloomberg) -- State Street Corp. Chief Executive Officer Ron O’Hanley said the US is likely to dip into an “old-fashioned” type of recession, perhaps starting late this year, as inventories build up in face of weakening demand.

“Speaking completely personally, I think the likelihood is there will be a recession,” in terms of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, O’Hanley said in an interview Friday. “If I had to guess, late ’22, early ’23,” with evidence probably magnified in the holiday season, he said.

O’Hanley echoed the view of many economists in saying the downturn wouldn’t approach the scale of the 2007-09 recession that was triggered by the financial crisis. Instead, he saw an imbalance between supply and demand that will force cutbacks.

“You’re already seeing a fair amount of significant inventory buildup,” said Boston-based O’Hanley, who helms one of the world’s biggest asset management and custodial firms. “There’s just a lot of reason to believe that a good old-fashioned supply-demand recession is in our future.”

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Economists have seen rising odds of a recession as the Federal Reserve implements the most aggressive monetary-tightening campaign in decades to bring inflation down. O’Hanley for his part applauded the Fed, which has been quick to shift its tactics in response to changing data.

“It’s very easy to criticize the Fed -- particularly with the benefit of hindsight,” he said. “I think the Fed is doing its job. I think it’s extremely focused on what the data is telling us.”

Under Chair Jerome Powell, the Fed has tried to be transparent in its assessments, the State Street chief said. “And that’s always difficult because, if you’re data driven, your thinking might change. So they look like they don’t know what they’re doing.”

“It’s actually quite the opposite,” he said. “There’s new data, new analysis and therefore new conclusions.”

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