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Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

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The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development today said it expects the global economy will shrink less than previously anticipated this year thanks largely to the "massive" intervention by governments to shore up their economies. However, it's predictably warning that the actual outcomes will depend on how the pandemic plays out -- and says its call for 5.0 per cent global growth next year could be cut by 2-3 percentage points if the virus flares up. In a message that will resonate in Canada ahead of next week’s throne speech, OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone cautioned "it is important that governments avoid the mistake of tightening fiscal policy too quickly." We'll explore that with her at 9:10 a.m. ET.

INFLATION WATCH

More evidence today that price pressure is not an immediate threat in Canada, at least not based on how Statistics Canada measures things. The consumer price index unexpectedly fell 0.1 per cent in August, and inched up just 0.1 per cent compared to a year earlier. Relief at the pumps played a big role, with gasoline prices tumbling 11.1 per cent year-over-year.

CABINET RETREAT WRAPS

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will address the media this afternoon after wrapping up a three-day cabinet retreat, where the tone around the strategy for next week’s throne speech shifted as COVID-19 cases started trending higher in Canada. It’s been quite the change in messaging since Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland conveyed grandiose ambitions the day she was sworn in as finance minister. We’ll gather insight today, and in the days ahead, on what to expect from that crucial blueprint for the government and also discuss the broader state of Canada-U.S. relations after yesterday’s surprise tariff reprieve and word that the border restrictions are likely to remain in place until November (that’s according to our CTV News colleagues).

FED DAY

The U.S. Federal Reserve today will make its final scheduled policy decision prior to the Nov. 3 elections, and it will come with updated projections that should give us a better sense of whether the central bank has even started talking about talking about eventually raising interest rates. The last time we got dots plots illustrating the voting members’ views on where rates are heading, they indicated the Fed would be firmly on hold through the end of 2022. Sidebar to our coverage: U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to place Judy Shelton on the Fed’s board is in question this morning, with our Bloomberg partners noting a senior Senate official has indicated Shelton doesn’t yet have sufficient support in the upper chamber.

TSX STREAK

The Composite Index has closed higher in three straight sessions; that’s its longest winning streak in a little more than a month. Yesterday it was heavyweights like Canadian National Railway and BCE (our parent company), as well as Restaurant Brands International, leading the way higher.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

-A new Ipsos survey conducted on behalf of MNP shows 45 per cent of respondents who are currently tapping the feds’ COVID-19 emergency measures say they’re expecting to take on more debt after those relief programs wind down.

-Shopify is again striking while the iron’s hot. Late last night, it said it would raise almost $1.8 billion after pricing an offering of 1.1 million subordinate shares at US$900 apiece and US$800 million in convertible senior notes. Proceeds will go toward “providing flexibility to fund its growth strategies”.

-FedEx shares are up almost 10 per cent in pre-market trading after the shipping company sailed past fiscal first-quarter profit and revenue estimates.

-Boeing is being raked across the coals in a 200+-page report by the U.S. House Committee that probed circumstances leading to two fatal 737 Max crashes. The head of the committee says it’s “particularly infuriating [that] Boeing and FAA both gambled with public safety in the critical period between the two crashes.” 

-Cominar REIT will be on our radar today after it announced the start of a formal strategic review.

-Canopy Rivers this morning announced its PharmHouse joint-venture has filed for CCAA protection; as a result, the $500-million lawsuit that David George-Cosh reported on yesterday has been stayed.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

-Notable data: Canadian CPI, Canadian international securities transactions, U.S. retail sales

-1:30 p.m. ET: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivers remarks and holds avail in Ottawa

-2:00 p.m. ET: U.S. Federal Reserve releases interest rate decision and updated projections (plus 2:30 p.m. ET news conference)

Every morning BNN Bloomberg's Managing Editor Noah Zivitz writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN Bloomberg's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnnbloomberg.ca/subscribe