Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

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Bloomberg News is reporting the Biden administration could announce as early as today that the U.S. is implementing a ban on imports of Russian oil. Within minutes of that story hitting the terminal, the White House updated today’s itinerary to include remarks by the president at 10:45 a.m. ET. We’ll track that closely. As we will the broader commodities complex; notably in the case of nickel, the London Metals Exchange called a time out. Trading in that commodity was halted today, with the LME citing “orderly market grounds” and adding that a multi-day suspension is possible “given the geopolitical situation which underlies recent price moves.” The recent surge in commodity prices is one the reasons we’re hearing more recession talk in the U.S. these days. If you missed it, check out Bloomberg’s post-mortem on yesterday’s session that left one strategist saying “it seems more and more likely a recession is unavoidable.”

LOONIE STUCK IN A RUT

What happened to our supposed petrocurrency? It’s been sagging the last couple of days, and is way off its recent high of 83.09 cents U.S. despite the surge in oil prices and an initial rate hike from the Bank of Canada. No doubt this is more a story of U.S. dollar strength than Canadian dollar weakness, but it’s still eye-grabbing. We’ll chase perspective on the outlook for our currency and what it means for Canadians who might be gearing up for international travel in the weeks and months ahead. And wouldn’t you know it, CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld just released a report that examines the weakening correlation between oil and the loonie.

SHELL MEA CULPA

The global supermajor, which last week announced its plan to cut ties with Russia’s Gazprom, this morning went further in distancing itself from the country, saying it will halt all purchases of Russian crude oil, shutter its service stations and other facilities in Russia, and undertake the “complex challenge” of withdrawing from Russian LNG, pipeline gas, and petroleum products. It also cautioned that making changes to its supply chain will take time and lead to reduced activity at some of its refineries. Its CEO, Ben van Beurden, said Shell’s decision to purchase oil from Russia last week “was not the right one and we are sorry.” But, in a message that should ring out loud and clear across the halls of power, he added that governments will have to make the call on “incredibly difficult trade-offs” that must be made during the invasion of Ukraine. Good opportunity to point out our Bloomberg partners are talking with Canada’s Natural Resources minister this afternoon.

PINING FOR KEYSTONE XL

Lots of talk these days about the coulda/shoulda/woulda on the latest addition to Canada’s graveyard of doomed energy infrastructure projects. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney yesterday made it clear he hasn’t given up on the pipeline that was effectively killed by U.S. President Joe Biden, saying there are “creative ways” to revive Keystone XL. We asked the proponent, TC Energy, about that. A spokesperson for the company simply pointed us to the existing Keystone system. We’ll chase insight from others in the know about whether any conditions could allow for KXL to rise like a phoenix. Let’s point out here that Jean Charest has scheduled an event in Calgary Thursday evening, where he’s expected to formally announce his candidacy to succeed Erin O’Toole as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Charest previously was associated with another doomed Canadian pipeline, Energy East.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

• It’s a product launch day for Apple. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has reported that a 5G-enabled iPhone SE will be unveiled, as well as a new Mac and new iPad.
• Intertape Polymer Group has agreed to a takeover by Clearlake Capital Group. The deal is worth US$2.6 billion, including debt. Clearlake will pay $40.50 for each share in Montreal-based Intertape, which closed at $22.28 yesterday on the TSX.
• Nuvei is out with its first batch of results since its stock was clobbered by a short report late last year. The Montreal-based payment technology firm reported a 127 per cent surge in fourth-quarter volume, and an only slightly less impressive gain in revenue. Its revenue forecast range for this year broadly exceeds the average estimate, as does its outlook for payment volumes. Recall that Nuvei shares sank almost 41 per cent on Dec. 8 last year, which was the day Spruce Point released its short thesis. We’re expecting to speak with CEO Philip Fayer this morning.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

• Notable data: Canadian and U.S. trade balances
• Notable earnings: Nuvei Corp
• 800: RBC CEO Dave McKay delivers remarks at RBC Capital markets Financial Institutions Conference
• 1000: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau holds joint media avail in Latvia
• 1300: Apple holds product launch event
• Scotiabank Telecom, Media & Technology Conference (BCE CFO Glen LeBlanc speaks at 835, Telus CFO Doug French at 1025, Rogers TBC executive at 1530)