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Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Thursday started:

  • The escalating U.S.-China trade war is threatening to upend the global economy’s much-anticipated rebound and could even throw its decade-long expansion into doubt if the conflict spirals out of control
    • Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann says that an escalation would be “poison” for global growth and have an especially acute impact on the U.S. itself
    • In China, the trade war is hitting the most productive parts of the economy the hardest
  • In the U.S., low inflation is obscuring how Americans are already paying up for the spat, foreshadowing further pain as the administration boosts tariffs and readies additional levies
  • Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pulling out the big guns in its push to slow China’s rise, with potentially devastating consequences for the rest of the world
  • Negative interest rates are not the main culprit for European banks’ feeble profitability, European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said, signaling the institution is in no rush to bring relief
  • The race to lead the Bank of England could turn on who heads the government by the time the decision is made in October

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

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