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Mar 10, 2020

U.S. stock rebound muted by stimulus uncertainty

BNN Bloomberg's mid-morning market update: March 10, 2020

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U.S. stocks rebounded from the worst rout since the financial crisis on expectations the Trump administration will unveil stimulus measures, but a lack of details kept a lid on the advance. Treasuries fell and oil jumped.

The S&P 500 clung to gains in afternoon trading on President Donald Trump’s promise of “major” moves to counter the fallout from the spreading coronavirus. He has not communicated his plans to Congress yet. He did say his administration would assist the airline and cruise industries. A 4 per cent rally in European stocks got zapped. Stocks earlier rose 3.5 per cent before erasing that advance, only to jump more than 2 per cent.

“It’s market March Madness at the moment, complete with surprising losses, upsets, and comebacks,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial.

Among the major moves:

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent as of 2:03 p.m. in New York.
  • Airlines rallied after Trump’s comments. He did not offer details on what he’d do for the group that’s among the hardest hit, as event cancellations mount.
  • Utilities plunged and makers of consumer staples fell along with energy producers. Occidental Petroleum cut its dividend by 86 per cent.
  • Apple surged 2.7 per cent.
  • The Cboe Volatility Index held above 50.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield topped 0.6 per cent. German 10-year rates stood at -0.80 per cent.
  • West Texas Intermediate surged 7.2 per cent to climb above US$33 a barrel.

Volatility continued to grip global financial markets rattled by the virus and an all-out oil price war. U.S. stocks plunged the most since 2008 on Monday, and further selling took futures 20 per cent from records before the rally sparked by Trump’s promise for action Tuesday. The S&P 500 is down 19 per cent from its record. So far, the president has criticized the Federal Reserve and Democratic congressional leaders without providing details of his proposals.

“Doubt and uncertainty about the magnitude, timing, impact of fiscal measures -- both in the U.S. and abroad -- are causing investors to worry about jumping in too soon,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

With markets on edge, signs had started to mount that governments around the world are awaking to need for stimulus measures to combat the virus that is threatening to plunge the global economy into recession. Trump’s proposal will likely include a payroll tax cut and a short-term expansion of paid sick leave, according to people familiar with the plan.

At the same time, measures to contain the coronavirus continue to undermine prospects for corporate earnings, and raise the danger of a funding crisis, while the oil price crash threatens a swath of defaults among producers. Italy added nationwide travel restrictions to its effective lockdown of the northern region of the country.

“A strong rebound today, if it in fact holds, does not mean the volatility, or even the worst, is behind us. Rather, investors should expect continued gyrations both up and down until there is greater certainty on coronavirus,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com

Elsewhere, Japanese government bonds tumbled after an auction of five-year debt flopped.

Here are some key events coming up:

The European Central Bank’s policy decision comes Thursday amid expectations it may ease policy.
The U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer unveils the government’s 2020 budget on Wednesday.
The U.S. core consumer price index, due Wednesday, is expected to remain subdued in February.

 

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