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Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

• Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein urged companies and consumers to gird for a US recession
  • Goldman Sachs will allow senior staff to take an unlimited number of vacation days, the latest move by a Wall Street bank to retain talent in a heated job market
• China’s economy is paying the price for the government’s Covid Zero policy, with industrial output and consumer spending sliding to the worst levels since the pandemic began
  • China’s rare cut to the interest rate for new mortgages may not be enough to revive an ever-worsening property slump
• India’s move to restrict wheat exports is reverberating through global agricultural markets, exposing just how tight global supplies are after the war in Ukraine and threatening to drive up food prices even more
• The UK is fast becoming the epicenter of the global stagflation crisis, as the Bank of England’s policy-tightening campaign and the soaring cost of living put the world’s fifth-biggest economy on the verge of recession
• The European Central Bank will raise interest rates three times this year in a bid to quell inflation, according to economists polled by Bloomberg
• The European Union cut its prediction for 2022 euro-area growth and almost doubled its estimate for inflation
  • The euro area’s pandemic recovery would almost grind to a halt, while prices would surge even more quickly if there are serious disruptions to natural-gas supplies from Russia
• Finally, here’s what’s to look out for in the world economy this week: Time to Gauge 80-Day Inflation Shock Around the World: Eco Week

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