(Bloomberg) -- The US is in talks to ramp up purchases of explosives from Turkey to boost production of artillery shells as allies scramble to ship badly needed ammunition to Ukraine. 

Turkish supplies of trinitrotoluene, known as TNT, and nitroguanidine, which is used as a propellant, would be crucial in the production of NATO-standard 155mm caliber ammunition — potentially tripling production, according to officials familiar with the discussions. Turkey is already on track to becoming the biggest seller of the artillery shells to the US as early as this year. 

Russia’s two-year war in Ukraine has triggered a surge in global demand for ammunition, with Western allies pushing to supply Kyiv even as they replenish their own depleted stocks. The demand spike has led to a backlog in global orders and put a strain on defense supply chains, particularly on components such as TNT, the officials said on condition of anonymity. 

The dealmaking with Ankara also lays bare a delicate balance between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, whose relations have been strained by Russia’s invasion and Turkey’s months-long blockade of Sweden’s accession to the military alliance. 

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit the White House on May 9 for the first time since President Joe Biden took office as the two smooth over military ties. Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership this year cleared the way for Washington to sign off on a $23 billion sale of American-made F-16 warplanes, missiles and bombs to Ankara. 

The partnership on ammunition production would build on that. The Pentagon in late February said it contracted General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems to build three 155mm projectile metal parts lines in Texas, including with Turkish subcontractors. The plant in Mesquite, Texas, is scheduled to move into production in June, the company said.

Catching Up With Moscow

Production lines of Turkish defense firm Repkon are expected to produce some 30% of all US-made 155mm artillery shells by 2025, the people said. In addition, the Defense Department purchased 116,000 rounds of battle-ready ammunition from Turkey’s Arca Defense for delivery this year, with further purchases expected soon for delivery next year, the people added. 

In a statement on the Texas investment and Turkish industry, the Pentagon said working with allies “is key to building a global defense industrial base.” Turkey’s Defense Ministry and defense-procurement agency didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The US and European efforts are part of a race to catch up with Moscow, whose war machine has put it in a position to produce or procure — according to some estimates — 4 million rounds this year, including shipments from North Korea. By contrast, the European Union expects to triple its production of artillery shells this year to around 1.4 million units.

As big defense companies and smaller suppliers start to ramp up production, US and European ammunition output is expected to significantly increase next year and the year after, Western officials say. 

But that depends in part on the US Congress approving more than $60 billion earmarked for Ukraine, currently blocked by House Republicans demanding concessions on migration. The US Army aims to produce 100,000 155mm shells a month by late 2025, which won’t be possible without the funds, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said in late February. 

The US ammunition partnership with Turkey also exposes a divergence in strategy with the EU. For months, the 27-member bloc held back from using funds for purchases from Turkey because of resistance from France, Greece and Cyprus — even as it had to postpone its goal to send Ukraine 1 million shells by March until the end of the year on lagging production.

--With assistance from Firat Kozok.

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