(Bloomberg) -- The World Bank has increased its estimate of how much Ukraine will need for its recovery and reconstruction to at least $411 billion, based on damages inflicted during the first year of Russia’s invasion.
The new figure, from a joint assessment by the bank, the government of Ukraine, the European Commission and the United Nations, is equivalent to 2.6 times Ukraine’s projected 2022 gross domestic product.
The assessment also found that the invasion pushed 7.1 million people into poverty and reversed 15 years of development progress.
“This is a sobering figure, and it shows the extent of the destruction and the continued need for international support,” said Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s vice president for Europe and Central Asia.
The World Bank had made an initial $349 billion projection in September, based on the first three months of the war.
The damages didn’t escalate as much as could have been expected after the first three months due to several factors, according to the World Bank. Those include the most-intense conflict remaining constrained to areas that already faced significant damage; some of the country’s needs already having been met by the government, along with international support; and the government’s ability to keep essential services flowing.
As part of the assessment, the World Bank quantified the direct physical damage to infrastructure and buildings, as well as the impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.
The World Bank has mobilized $20.6 billion for Ukraine, including in the health and transport sectors.
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