(Bloomberg) -- Peru’s biggest bank sees the economy finally turning a page from its worst recession this century, thanks to weaker-than-expected weather disruptions brought on by the El Nino weather pattern. 

“We anticipate improved macroeconomic conditions in 2024,” Credicorp Ltd’s CEO Gianfranco Ferrari said in an earnings release. “Factors like the waning influence of the El Niño phenomenon, an upgraded GDP outlook, reduced local reference rate and controlled inflation foster our improved optimism.” 

Peru’s recession was triggered by bad weather and political turmoil last year. Both factors appear to have waned this year and the central bank is repeatedly cutting interest rates, but economists are waiting to see just how much Peru’s economy can recover this year. The nation, once Latin America’s star economy, has seen its growth potential eroded year after year due to relentless political crises that led it to cycle through six presidents since 2016. 

Read More: Peru’s Economic Miracle Destroyed by Non-Stop Political Chaos

Peru’s government sees the economy growing 3% in 2024, but its credibility was hurt last year after vastly overestimating its growth potential. Credicorp sees the economy rebounding 2.5% in 2024. 

“Lower rates and government initiatives to drive projects in the mining and infrastructure sectors, will lay the foundation for a gradual rebound in economic activity in 2024,” said Credicorp CFO Cesar Rios in the release. 

Credicorp said Peru’s economy had likely contracted 0.2% in the final quarter of 2023 compared to a year earlier. Official economic activity numbers will not be out until next week. 

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