(Bloomberg) -- Senegalese Prime Minister Amadou Ba is likely to win presidential elections scheduled for February with the backing of the ruling coalition and President Macky Sall’s endorsement, Eurasia Group said.

The vote scheduled for Feb. 25 is likely to go to a second round because of the large number of opposition challengers, which may dilute the vote for a single candidate, the research group said in a note on Wednesday.

Investors are watching the race to succeed Sall for indications on policy continuity. The West African nation in June obtained approval from the International Monetary Fund for about $1.8 billion of loans to support its economic recovery from the effects of the shocks including the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Ba’s victory would facilitate policy continuity, thereby supporting fiscal consolidation under the ongoing IMF program,” Eurasia said.

Among potential challengers are Bassirou Faye, the secretary-general of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko’s Pastef party, Karim Wade, the son of ex-President Abdoulaye Wade, and opposition leader Cheikh Tidiane Dieye.

Sonko, long seen as the main challenger to Sall’s ruling coalition, will likely be excluded from the race following his conviction for morally corrupting a minor and his removal from the electoral roll.

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