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Apr 30, 2019

Shopify extends market-leading rally with another strong quarter

Shopify 'the new landlords' of e-commerce: Portfolio manager

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Shopify Inc. (SHOP.TO, SHOP.N) jumped the most this year after another strong earnings report, extending a rally that has made it one of Canada’s best-performing stocks.

The online retailer rose as much as 9.9 per cent in Toronto. The shares have now more than doubled since Christmas Eve, the best performance on the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index after pot stock Hexo Corp. Shopify’s gains are also bigger than any stock in the S&P 500 Index over that time.

Tuesday’s rally probably surprised some investors as Shopify’s run-up ahead of the results suggested the stock price already reflected positive results. The company also has a long track record of beating estimates. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian said growth drivers were consistent with prior quarters, including strong merchant engagement trends. The revised forecast still looks “conservative” to Sebastian, who rates the shares outperform.

How much higher can Shopify go? The highest price target among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is $336.35, about 2 per cent above the record-high level where it’s currently trading, but the average target implies about 19 per cent drop in the next 12 months.

What Bloomberg Intelligence says

“Shopify’s strategic investments that expand its current portfolio, increase its products’ stickiness among customers and differentiate itself from rising competition will likely help it achieve its 39 per cent sales-growth goal in 2019, in our view. The widening e-commerce market is driving merchandise volume.”-- Anurag Rana, senior technology analyst