Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

Archive

Global stock markets are sliding, oil and natural gas are leading a surge in almost all commodity prices, safe haven bond yields are falling, and some bets on central bank liftoff are being pared as the world watches Russia's attack on Ukraine, which President Vladimir Putin described as a "special military operation" in his televised address. U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement he'll announce "further consequences" today for what he's calling a "premeditated war." We'll gather expert market insight on prudent portfolio management in times of global conflict, perspective on what history tells us about how investors and traders respond after the initial shock of an attack, how high this could propel energy prices (Dutch natural gas futures surged as much as 40 per cent overnight, while West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude touched US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2014), and what the ramifications will be for central banks.

RBC OPENS EARNINGS SEASON WITH A BEAT

Weakness in Royal Bank of Canada’s trading unit was no match for the institution’s capacity to pump out profit. Its adjusted per-share earnings exceeded the average estimate by 15 cents, led by double-digit growth in the core banking operations as well as a record performance in its corporate and investment banking business. That overshadowed revenue erosion in its global markets (ie, trading) unit.

ALBERTA BUDGET DAY

Could balanced books be within reach for Alberta? That's the big question heading into this afternoon's budget. The last fiscal update from Jason Kenney's United Conservative government forecast a $5.8-billion deficit this fiscal year (thanks to an anticipated surge in bitumen royalty revenue), with shortfalls of $3.3 billion and $2.3 billion in the next two years. That fiscal update was built in part on an expectation of West Texas Intermediate at US$70.50 this fiscal year, and WTI at US$64.00 next fiscal year. And a special programming note for today: we’re extending The Close for breaking news coverage of the budget at 5:15 p.m. ET.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

• Spot gold came close to hitting US$2,000 this morning, and we were hoping to speak with a senior Agnico Eagle executive today. However, the company announced last night that Tony Makuch stepped down and is being replaced by gold industry veteran Ammar Al-Joundi. Agnico also reported record annual production and forecast flat all-in sustaining costs this year of US$1,000 to US$1,050 per ounce.
• Teck Resources' shareholders are about to receive a much larger dividend. The miner's board authorized a payment of $0.625 per share on March 31, compared to the previous payment of $0.05 per share. The upcoming dividend includes a base payment of $0.125 and a $0.50 supplemental. On top of that, there's also a new $100-million buyback program. Teck announced those moves as it reported record adjusted profit of $1.4 billion ($2.54 per share) in the fourth quarter, and revenue surged 72 per cent year-over-year to $4.4 billion as prices for all of the commodities it mines spiked compared to a year earlier.
• Loblaw beat fourth-quarter profit expectations by a wide margin ($1.52 per share versus $1.36 estimate), helped once again by big gain in same-store sales at Shoppers Drug Mart. In the food business, Loblaw said it’s seeing “the return of price-sensitive consumers.”
• In the words of Michael McCain, Maple Leaf Foods faced “an unexpected tornado of supply chain chaos” in the fourth quarter. There’s some ongoing signs of weakness in the company’s plant-based protein unit, with sales falling 3.7 per cent in the quarter. In a release, the company said there’s a “clear slowdown” in demand for those products and management is adjusting its strategy to achieve “neutral or better” adjusted EBITDA within a year and a half.
• Stelco Holdings' fourth-quarter revenue nearly tripled to $1.2 billion despite the disappointing shipments that it previously warned about. The company also swung to a profit. However, Executive Chair and CEO Alan Kestenbaum warned in the release that he's expecting margin pressure this year due to pricing and inflationary pressures.
• Quebecor is raising its dividend nine per cent to $0.30 per share. The company also reported modest subscriber growth for the fourth quarter, including a 1.9 per cent rise in wireless users. In a release, President and Chief Executive Pierre-Karl Péladeau said he’s observing “particularly intense competition” in Quebec’s telecom sector.
• The Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec today reported a 13.5 per cent return for 2021; it said that was its best performance since 2010. Digging a layer deeper, it was the equities book that led the way last year, with a 24.6 per cent return (compared to 13.6 per cent for real assets and a negative return of 0.6 per cent for fixed income). As of Dec. 31, the Caisse had $419.8 billion in assets.
• Boralex shares surged in early trading after the Montreal-based renewable energy producer said it sold a 30 per cent stake in its France assets to Energy Infrastructure Partners.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

• Notable data: Canadian job vacancies, manufacturing sales (flash estimate); U.S. initial jobless claims, GDP (Q4), and new home sales
• Notable earnings: Royal Bank of Canada, Loblaw, Pembina Pipeline, Teck Resources, Baytex Energy, Enerplus, Whitecap Resources, Cascades, TransAlta, Maple Leaf Foods, Freshii, Quebecor, Newmont, Ovintiv, Beyond Meat, Coinbase
• 900: Virtual meeting of G7 leaders
• 900: Bombardier holds investor day meeting
• 1100: Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec releases annual results
• 1200: Vancouver Fraser Port Authority President and CEO Robin Silvester holds media avail in Vancouver with Transport Minister Omar Alghabra and Employment Minister Carla Qualtrough to discuss supply chain resiliency
• 1400: EU emergency summit on Ukraine
• 1715: Alberta government presents budget