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Dec 27, 2018

Bear market kept at bay as U.S. stocks rise from lows

NYSE

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Volatility returned to U.S. markets, with stocks roaring back from the lows of the day to close higher after flirting with a bear market. Treasuries rose and oil slipped below US$46 a barrel.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average turned green in a late surge after trading negative for most of the day, with a more than 800 point swing up by the Dow in less than two hours. On top of Wednesday’s 5 per cent surge, it’s was the biggest two-day rally in the S&P since August 2015.

“It’s hard to explain moves like today and yesterday and the last month,” said Sean O’Hara, president at Pacer ETFs. “From a time perspective, it’s a historic bull market and when you get that far into the cycle, people get more jittery.”

The S&P 500 has been careening toward its worst month of the record bull run and is down about 15 per cent in the quarter as everything from higher interest rates to political turmoil in Washington to concern about global growth hammer at investor sentiment. Havens came back in vogue, with Treasury 10-year yields slipping below 2.8 per cent, and gold climbing with the yen.

The euphoria of equity investors evaporated earlier from Wednesday, when investors cheered a reminder of the American consumer’s strength and got reassurance on the tenure of the Federal Reserve chief and progress on U.S.-China trade talks. While there was no obvious catalyst for the return to selling that took stocks within a whisker of a bear market, the moves of the past few days sent volatility soaring.

Elsewhere, WTI crude oil prices gave up a slice of the more than 8 per cent gain from the previous day. Losses in utility companies and carmakers dragged the Stoxx Europe 600 Index into the red. Asian shares were mixed, though Tokyo’s Topix Index posted the biggest advance in two years.

“After a day like yesterday, you’d like to say, ‘Oh, that’s it. That kind of a move, that’s got to be the bottom.’ But you know what?” Michael Antonelli, equity sales trader at Robert W. Baird, said on Bloomberg TV. “We just don’t know yet.”

Here are some events investors may focus on in coming days:

Baker Hughes releases its weekly data on active U.S. oil rigs on Friday. Monday is year end. Brazil’s new president is sworn in on Tuesday.

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    And these are the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    The S&P 500 Index rose 0.9 per cent as of 4:10 p.m. New York time. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average cut its decline from more than 600 points to close up 1.1 per cent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.7 per cent to the lowest in more than two years on the biggest fall in more than a week. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.2 per cent. The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed less than 0.1 per cent, the first advance in a week.

    Currencies

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.4 per cent. The euro rose 0.8 per cent to US$1.1438. The Japanese yen jumped 0.4 per cent to 110.90 per dollar. The British pound rose less than 0.1 per cent to US$1.2638. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index gained 0.2 per cent, the largest rise in more than a week.

    Bonds

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell four basis points to 2.76 per cent. Germany’s 10-year yield decreased two basis points to 0.23 per cent, the lowest in a week on the largest dip in almost two weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield increased five basis points to 1.31 per cent.

    Commodities

    The Bloomberg Commodity Index decreased 0.5 per cent. Crude oil fell 2.3 per cent to US$45.18 a barrel. LME copper jumped 0.6 per cent to US$5,969 per metric ton, reaching the highest in more than a week on the first advance in more than a week and the biggest increase in more than two weeks. Gold increased 0.7 per cent to US$1,275 an ounce, the highest in more than six months.