(Bloomberg) -- ASML Holding NV warned that the continued chip supply chain crisis and a rise in costs could constrain earnings, after demand continued to rise for its cutting-edge machines. 

Net sales forecast for the second quarter fell short of analyst expectations after a decision to delay testing its machines to speed up deliveries once again hit earnings.

Europe’s largest semiconductor equipment maker said Wednesday it predicts sales of 5.1 billion euros ($5.52 billion) to 5.3 billion euros for the second quarter compared with an estimate of 5.86 billion euros in a Bloomberg analyst survey.    

In the second quarter, 800 million euros of net delayed revenue was excluded from the company’s guidance, according to Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen. “That is the result of the fact that we expect more fast shipments at the end of Q2 than we had at the end of Q1.”

Dassen also cited the increase in labor, component, freight and energy prices. “If I were to quantify that, I think all in all we might be looking this year about a 1% incremental impact on the gross margin.”

Inflationary pressures are growing amid a rise in service fees to secure parts that are in short supply and very high demand, jump in freight costs on changing shipping corridors and fuel prices, and “very strong” competition in labor markets in Asia and Silicon Valley, according to Dassen. 

Despite the costs from the delays, ASML remained optimistic about future demand. 

“We continue to see that the demand for our systems is higher than our current production capacity,” CEO Peter Wennink said. “In light of the demand and our plans to increase capacity, we expect to revisit our scenarios for 2025 and growth opportunities beyond. We plan to communicate updates in the second half of the year.”

ASML shares were up as much as 3% on Wednesday.

ASML has cornered the market for the latest advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment needed to make cutting-edge chips that are faster, cheaper and more efficient. 

However, the company began skipping some final testing in its factories last year to speed up delivery. This meant clients get their machines more quickly, but ASML had to delay about 2 billion euros worth of sales that were expected to ship in the first quarter.

The Dutch company’s customers include Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which have been investing heavily to keep up with rebounding demand as lockdowns ended. It competes with Japan’s Nikon Corp. in deep ultraviolet machines used to produce more mature chips.  

The wait times for semiconductor deliveries rose to a new high in March, after lockdowns in China and an earthquake in Japan further hampered supply. Lead times -- the lag between when a chip is ordered and delivered -- increased by two days to 26.6 weeks last month, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group.

Key Insights

  • In the first quarter, ASML shipped 9 of its newest EUV machines, which etch smaller circuits while increasing capacity and speed.
  • ASML kept its guidance for 20% sales growth and a capacity for 55 EUV units this year
  • Dassen says ASML is doubling capacity in comparison to 2020 for EUV. “So 2x and that will get you to more than 70 EUV systems by 2025.”
  • “Going into the moving parts that we discussed then at that point in time, we said we expect the gross margin on the Installed Base revenue business to be a little bit lower,” said Dassen, “because last year we had a very, very high level of software business and there we expect that to be a bit lower this year.”
  • “Backed by a very well filled orderbook and a ramp in production capacity 2023 is shaping up well already,” said Marc Hesselink, an Amsterdam-based analyst ING. Hesselink said he sees an unchanged picture overall with “high demand for years to come.”
  • ASML stock dropped about 22% since the start of the year, in line with a 23% retreat in the Stoxx Europe technology index.

(Updates with stock move and additional context.)

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