(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s economy faces increasing challenges in maintaining its growth momentum as the city sticks with a Covid zero strategy that’s largely kept borders shut and raised questions about its future as a global financial hub.

Consumption vouchers handed out to residents last quarter helped to prop up spending in the economy, with data Monday likely to show gross domestic product expanded at a slower, yet still-rapid pace, of 5.7% from a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. 

Growth is coming off the boil and is set to slow further into next year without an easing of severe border restrictions that have choked off travel and tourism.

“The consumption voucher should have some positive multiplying effect on that overall consumption, but that should be marginal compared to reopening the border with mainland China,” said Iris Pang, chief greater China economist with ING Bank NV. 

The first instalment of the HK$5,000 ($643) consumption vouchers helped to boost retail sales growth to 11.9% in August, with a second payout likely to underpin spending in the fourth quarter.

Tommy Wu, lead economist with Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, forecasts 6.7% year-on-year growth in the quarter and a return to positive quarter-on-quarter expansion, bolstered in part by the cash vouchers. 

“But I do think I am a bit overly optimistic given how the property market is stagnating and it appears that the general economic sentiment has been weaker than expected,” he said. “Further easing of social distancing measures and progress towards quarantine-free travel will be challenging, which doesn’t bode well for a sustainable economic recovery.”

The upcoming data release is another barometer of the city’s economic health as it stands by one of the world’s strictest Covid-19 containment regimes. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has repeatedly stressed the priority is reopening the border with mainland China, with the city last week tightening quarantine rules further in hopes of easier cross-border travel.

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Foreign business leaders, including the American and European chambers of commerce, have expressed increasing frustration with the lack of progress on loosening quarantine rules that have severely curtailed overseas travel. 

“A global financial hub is a hugely open economy by definition so it can only suffer with closed borders,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist with Natixis SA. 

Three main challenges to the strength of Hong Kong’s economy next year include a recent outflow of residents reducing the labor supply, lack of international visitors and China’s economic slowdown, she said.

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