(Bloomberg) -- China’s Communist Party signaled a possible major shake-up of the nation’s economic policy team at a time of heightened concern about the world’s second-largest economy.

Premier Li Keqiang, 67, economic czar Liu He, 70, central bank governor Yi Gang, 64, and banking regulator Guo Shuqing, 66, were dropped off lists of full or alternate members of the Central Committee -- the country’s most senior officials and political elites -- according to statements published Saturday at the end of the party’s congress. 

The men -- who have strong academic credentials and are known for promoting policies supportive of opening up the economy -- are all around the official retirement age of 65 for minister-level officials. 

Finance Minister Liu Kun, 65, was left off the list of members of the top anti-corruption team and didn’t make it onto the Central Committee list either.

Being dropped from the party lists doesn’t automatically mean the officials will leave their government posts. It may only become clearer in March 2023, when the national legislature meets, whether the officials will remain, or if they leave, who would replace them.

The possible changes to the policy team come amid heightened uncertainty about China’s growth outlook as Covid lockdowns and the worst housing market downturn on record batter the economy. Gross domestic product growth is forecast to slow to just 3.3% this year, which would be the weakest pace in more than four decades barring 2020’s Covid slump.  

For economic leadership, who becomes premier will be key to watch rather than who leads the central bank, said Hui Feng, co-author of “The Rise of the People’s Bank of China” and a senior lecturer at Griffith University. 

The new premier and successor to Li wasn’t immediately clear. There may be clues on who will take that post when the Communist Party reveals the names of the Politburo’s supreme Standing Committee, expected on Sunday. The premier has been No. 2 or 3 on the Standing Committee in the past few decades.

Li Qiang, now the Shanghai party chief and an ally of President Xi Jinping, and Hu Chunhua, who is believed to be close to Li Keqiang, are seen as competitive contenders for the premiership. They both remain full members of the Central Committee.

“Xi wouldn’t like to rock the boat at this stage given lots of worries of the economy, and I would expect the new economic leadership would stress continuity in ‘reform and opening up’,” Hui said before the list of committee members was revealed. “But the trend for the near future will be a continuity of the recent past: maintaining control of industry and society.”

In his opening speech to the party congress, Xi reinforced Beijing’s focus on supporting economic growth, although made greater reference to the need to balance security concerns and emphasized self-reliance in technology amid heightened tensions with the US.

Party Charter

Another prominent campaign under Xi has been “common prosperity,” referring to the need to limit income and wealth inequality, a policy that’s been linked to tighter regulation of large tech companies. On Saturday, the congress revised the Communist Party’s constitution to include “gradually realizing the goal of common prosperity.” 

The party also added a reference to accelerate efforts to “foster a new pattern of development that is focused on the domestic economy” while still promoting exchange with the global economy, in a strategy known as “dual circulation.”

The Central Committee’s list gave some hints of officials that may play a bigger role in economic policymaking.

He Lifeng, 67, who is head of the nation’s powerful planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, is seen as a close confidante of Xi and a likely candidate to replace Liu He as economic czar. He retained his full membership of the Central Committee. 

Yi Huiman, 57, who has been the head of the securities watchdog since 2019, was promoted to full membership of the Central Committee. 

For the PBOC, it’s not certain that the removal of Governor Yi’s name from the party lists means his exit from the central bank. His predecessor, former PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, wasn’t on the Central Committee list in 2012, but was elected vice chairman of the top political advisory body the next year -- an arrangement that allowed him to stay on in his position at the central bank until 2018. 

Since Yi took office in early 2018, he has pushed forward reforms, modernized the way monetary policy is conducted and promoted a range of structural tools -- now exceeding 5.4 trillion yuan combined -- to help spur bank lending. He steered the economy through downturns during the US-China trade war and the Covid pandemic and helped recoup the yuan’s international standing after a botched devaluation in 2015 that hurt market confidence. 

He’s taken a cautious approach to monetary stimulus though, refraining from using unconventional tools used by other major central banks, warning they could lead to high inflation and asset bubbles.

“The modernization of the central bank and monetary policy is basically completed under Governor Yi and there should be no major change in the future,” Xing Zhaopeng, a senior strategist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, said by phone on Saturday. He noted that the absence of PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng from the party lists was surprising, as he was seen as a young and capable professional.

Several younger officials who were formerly deputy governors at the People’s Bank of China made in onto the list for the first time. They include:

  • Yin Yong, who now serves as Beijing’s vice party chief, became a full member of the Central Committee
  • Zhu Hexin, currently chairman of Citic Group, one of China’s most important financial conglomerates, was named an alternate member
  • Liu Guiping, who left the PBOC earlier this year to become a vice mayor of Tianjin, also became an alternate member

--With assistance from Tom Hancock and Amanda Wang.

(Updates with additional details.)

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