(Bloomberg) -- Several of China’s largest and most influential provinces are targeting gross domestic product growth of at least 5% in 2024 as attention turns to how aggressive Beijing will be with its national economic goals.

All but one of the 26 provinces that have announced their annual GDP target have set this year’s at 5% or higher, with the median standing at 5.5%, according to official statements and local media reports. While some regional targets have yet to be revealed, the places so far comprised more than 80% of the country’s GDP last year and include economic powerhouses Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai.

The figures may add to speculation about Beijing’s national growth target. Many economists, including some linked to the government, expect that number to be fairly ambitious in 2024. Liu Yuanchun — the president of the Shanghai University of Finance & Economics who has advised the party’s 24-member Politburo — recently projected a goal of around 5%. Former People’s Bank of China adviser Yu Yongding recommended a similar figure during a speech earlier this week.

China set and reached a similar target in 2023, but repeating that this year would be more difficult because of a higher base of comparison. Top officials have signaled they likely won’t roll out massive stimulus now due to concerns about creating systemic risks. Some economists have also pointed to greater challenges this year since the economy benefited a bit in 2023 from the post-pandemic reopening. 

“Policymakers have a lot of work to do to even get close to 5% this year,” Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg TV this week. 

The provincial median goal for the last three years has tracked around 0.5 to 1 percentage point higher than the overall growth target, according to a Bloomberg analysis of regional announcements and reports. That trend may stem from a desire among local authorities to signal ambition to the central government. The ruling Communist Party likely decided the national goal last month at a major economic work conference, though it isn’t expected to announce anything until March.

The relatively high regional targets have led to several provinces missing their goals — including some by a fairly wide margin. The eastern province of Jiangxi eyed 7% growth in 2023 but recorded just 4.1%. Hunan province in southern China aimed for 6.5% but said it achieved 4.6%. 

Tibet and the island province of Hainan each see their output growing 8% this year — lower than the roughly 9% expansions they recorded in 2023, but still more bullish than any other place to announce goals for 2024 so far. 

Some provinces may struggle to achieve strong growth, especially if the housing market continues to be a drag. Nine of the nation’s 31 provinces saw fixed-asset investment drop in 2023.

A few provinces raised their growth targets for 2024, including Beijing, which lifted its goal to 5% from 4.5%.

“Beijing’s growth target for 2024 may serve as a precursor to China’s broader and more supportive growth target for the entire year,” Tommy Xie, head of Greater China Research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., wrote in a note this week. “This proactive approach indicates a commitment to fostering economic expansion and addressing challenges to support overall growth in the region.”

--With assistance from Tom Hancock, Jin Wu, Yujing Liu and Douglas Huang.

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