An economist says he expects the Bank of Canada will consider high immigration rates as it assesses fresh data on Canada’s labour market due out on Friday.

Economists tracked by Bloomberg are calling for a gain of 20,000 jobs added to the Canadian economy in September. That would mark a decline from the 40,000 jobs added in August, according to data from Statistics Canada. 
 
Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey is one of many data sources considered by the Bank of Canada as it sets policy aimed at bringing down inflation, and the central bank said it is looking for easing labour market tightness to indicate rate hikes are working.
 
The central bank has set its benchmark interest rate at five per cent and is due to announce its next rate decision on Oct. 25. 
 
Conference Board of Canada chief economist Pedro Antunes told BNN Bloomberg on Thursday that he believes high levels of immigration to Canada will factor into the central bank’s view of the pending labour market data and how it relates to inflation. 
 
“We’re adding to the supply of labour with the strong immigration numbers, and that is helping to slacken the labour market,” he said in a television interview. “I think the Bank of Canada is very aware of that.”
 
Population growth is expected to climb above three per cent this year thanks to immigration, Antunes noted, which is phenomenally strong compared to the one per cent that seen over the last 30 years.
 
However, the Bank of Canada faces a complicated task when assessing the latest data, Antunes cautioned, with many factors still pointing to strength in the economy.
 
“When you see three per cent population growth and wages and employment still rising, that generates fairly substantial underlying strength in consumer spending, so it’s hard for the Bank of Canada to slow the economy with that kind of momentum,” Antunes said.
 
LABOUR MARKET TRENDS
 
Canadian job posting grew in the month of August, but Antunes noted overall slackening in the country’s labour market data.
 
He explained that the hiring index, which is a measure of unduplicated job postings, inched higher in August. But generally, he said he’s noticing a downward trend in labour market. 
 
“It’s a slight uptick, but I think what we’re seeing overall is labour markets are still slackening,” he said. 
 
He compared this year’s labour market data to 2019, when he argued that the unemployment rate and other labour metrics showed a much tighter market.