(Bloomberg) -- Moderna Inc.’s first experimental flu shot didn’t accumulated enough data to determine efficacy in a final-stage study, and the company said it will advance another candidate.

Moderna tested its messenger RNA flu shot against a traditional vaccine in a trial of about 23,000 people age 50 and older in the northern hemisphere. An independent panel of scientific advisers recommended that the research continue to gather more data. Moderna plans to start a final-stage study of an updated version of the vaccine this month, according to a statement Tuesday. The shares fell as much as 4.9% at the New York market open.   

Introducing a flu shot is crucial to Moderna’s future. Covid vaccine sales are expected to drop precipitously with so many people already immunized and lackluster demand for boosters. Breaking into the roughly $7 billion flu shot market could help revenue. Plus, the company sees combination shots that protect people from Covid, flu and potentially RSV as a way to buoy sales. 

But before it can start mixing them together, Moderna needs to prove each piece works on its own, and the flu setback could delay its plans. Moderna said Tuesday that it intends to make combination vaccines available by 2025. 

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says:

The failure of Moderna’s mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine trial to show non-inferiority in terms of disease prevention against a cheap current alternative shot at its first planned interim (despite showing superiority in antibody levels) leaves the near-term focus entirely on results for its melanoma vaccine with Merck, due April 16. The data need to be spotless to support current consensus of $432 million in 2027. We also continue to believe that 2023 expectations of $7.3 billion for its biggest product, Covid-19 vaccine Spikevax, are too high.

—Sam Fazeli, BI pharmaceutical analyst

By 2027, Moderna expects sales of respiratory products ranging from $8 billion to $15 billion with profit between $4 billion and $9 billion. The company shared plans for immunizations against other ailments including respiratory syncytial virus and cytomegalovirus ahead of an investor event focused on its vaccine business. The company plans to seek US approval for its RSV shot this quarter. Its final-stage study of a CMV vaccine is about halfway enrolled. 

Moderna said it will also start developing immunizations for tick-borne Lyme disease and norovirus, a frequent cause of vomiting and diarrhea. 

(Updates shares in second paragraph.)

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