Aug 2, 2023
The Daily Chase: U.S. credit rating downgraded; Cameco quarterly results
By Amber Kanwar
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And then there were 10: Fitch joined S&P 12 years later downgrading the debt rating of the U.S. This leaves just 10 countries who have two of three of their government ratings at AAA standing (Canada is among that group). There are two immediate questions: why and so what? The “why” is easier to answer: the U.S. is on a spending spree at the same time it starts to play chicken with its debt payment obligations. The “so what” is a bit tougher. Markets right now are under a bit of pressure. Recall when S&P downgraded the U.S. in 2011. The S&P 500 fell an ominous 6.66 per cent that day; gold rallied almost 4 per cent. Right now gold is only up modestly and the U.S. dollar is flat. So as markets shrug this off, Rabobank suggests the U.S. dollar might be more affected by the political reaction from this announcement rather than the announcement itself. Indeed Biden officials are already out calling the decision “bizarre."
AMD has AI potential too: I’ll be interested to see if AMD holds onto its pre-market rally after its latest results. On one hand it talked up its AI possibilities. It is going to have a chip to rival Nvidia’s by the end of the year. They also talked up a recovery in PCs. On the other hand, sales fell 18 per cent in the quarter (but not as much as feared) as sales of chips tied to PCs fell 54 per cent and data centre revenue fell 11 per cent. Citi is upgrading AMD this morning in a mea culpa admitting they missed the 84 per cent rally this year. Part of the upgrade is the fact the AI chips AMD will make will add to margins, not weigh them down. They also thought investors would hold their nose about AMD valuation and “we were wrong on that count as well.”
Cameco sees glowing future: Shares of the uranium company are a bit weaker after reporting a surprise loss in the quarter. But this was mainly due to accounting for unrealized currency losses, so we will see if the markets get more forgiving throughout the day. Especially considering the company is boosting its full year sales outlook on the back of higher uranium prices and expected deliveries. Tim Gitzel, CEO of Cameco struck an optimistic tone saying, “We are seeing improving market fundamentals.” We will get perspective at 11:15 a.m. EDT when he joins me on Morning Markets.
The AI of housing: It is not an AI stock, but Equitable Group may add to it’s nearly 37 per cent rally this morning. Earnings for the alternative mortgage lender came in 16 per cent above expectations all on the back of margin expansion. The Big Six banks must be green with envy. At a time when loan growth is slowing at the big banks, alternative lenders have been picking up the slack. A small dent in the quarter could be rising provisions for credit losses that were higher than expected. At a time when banks are struggling to attract depositors, Equitable’s customer base is up a whopping 31 per cent as it offers zero-fee retail banking. Oh and they increased their profit forecast for the year. The CEO will be on The Close at 3:20 p.m. EDT.
Starbucks double-shot: Shares of Starbucks are weaker as sales missed expectations and its forecast for Chinese sales was weaker than expected. The company says it sees growth in China in the low to mid single digits, which would be a stark drop from the 46 per cent jump it saw in sales this quarter (benefitting from easy comparisons).