Apr 1, 2020
Germany, Canada among top economies with most to lose: ING
Morneau warns of 'extreme pressure' facing businesses amid COVID-19
Germany and Canada are among the world’s major economies most exposed to coronavirus-related shocks because of their dependence on trade, according to a recent report published by analysts at ING Group.
The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. and the subsequent economic fallout could pose “significant problems” for Canada, the report said. Canada imported US$453 billion of goods such as cars, machinery and oil from the U.S. in 2019, according to data from the Geneva-based International Trade Center.
Among major exporters, Germany is particularly vulnerable to output shocks because of its dependence on foreign demand for German machinery, cars and pharmaceutical goods, according to the report. Germany exported US$1.49 trillion of goods globally in 2019, according to ITC data.
“Open economies will suffer for a longer period of time from the supply and demand effects of the coronavirus,” the report said. “Even after the virus has been brought under control domestically, an open economy will continue to suffer from the virus because of falling demand in countries that are still struggling with the crisis.”
The U.S. economy will be somewhat more cushioned from trade shocks, the report said.
Nations whose exports represent a proportionately small portion of their overall production -- like the U.S., India and Brazil -- will suffer less than countries that are most dependent on foreign demand -- like Ireland, Hungary, Singapore and Vietnam, according to the report.
The report also warned that closed economies aren’t necessarily better off than open economies in this crisis. “Whether a country is better off depends to a large extent on the question of how much its production capacity is hit by the virus,” it said.