Experts from OPEC+ recommended that oil ministers consider a larger production cut when they meet later this week as the coronavirus takes a greater toll on the world economy.

The group’s Joint Technical Committee suggested a reduction in supply of between 600,000 and 1 million barrels a day after a meeting on Tuesday, said a delegate. That’s potentially a larger cut than it recommended last month, but falls short of some estimates of the demand hit from the outbreak. Oil futures pared gains.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies face an unprecedented challenge as the epidemic that started in China threatens to become a global pandemic. Growth in fuel consumption could be wiped out this year and prices have just had their biggest weekly drop since the global financial crisis.

To secure a supply cut that could stop the rout, the group must overcome Russian resistance while also grappling with the risks of bringing together delegations from 23 nations as the deadly disease continues to spread. One of those members, Iran, has a serious outbreak at home affecting top government officials.

There’s an “extremely grave situation” in the oil market, Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab said on Tuesday, according to state-run Algeria Press Service. “Algeria calls for a concrete, credible, cohesive and rapid action.”

In an effort to limit potential contagion, OPEC will take the unprecedented step of blocking journalists from entering its Vienna headquarters during the meeting, while also seeking to limit the size of members’ delegations to “a bare minimum,” according to a statement. The cartel’s meetings typically attract a contingent of hundreds of officials, reporters, TV crews, analysts and consultants from around the world.

Deeper Reduction

The JTC gathered in the Austrian capital to reappraise the impact of the epidemic. At their previous meeting in February, they recommended a production cut of just 600,000 barrels a day, but the outbreak has worsened since then.

“The recommended 600,000 barrel-a-day additional cut for the second quarter of 2020 will be seen as too little,” Mohammad Darwazah of consultant Medley Global Advisors said in a note. “It is clear that the group is mulling a deeper production pullback.”

OPEC+ has been struggling to manage the price impact from the U.S. shale boom since it was formed in late 2016. It launched a new round of supply curbs at the start of this year, removing about 2.1 million barrels a day from the market. Any cut agreed on this week would deepen that reduction.

With flights canceled in Europe, schools closed in Japan, towns quarantined in Italy and a rising death toll from Iran to Washington state, the coronavirus crisis has gone global, and with it, its impact on energy demand. For only the fourth time in almost 40 years, oil consumption may not grow at all in 2020, according to a growing minority of traders, investors and analysts.

That possibility is reflected in crude, which slumped 16 per cent in New York last week, the biggest drop since December 2008. The market has rebounded somewhat, but at about US$47 a barrel on Tuesday prices remain too low for most of the cartel’s members to balance their budgets.